A Bullish Indicator for Alphabet's Stock Just Flashed in the Prediction Markets

Dow Jones12-20 16:01

Alphabet's odds on Polymarket of being the world's largest company at the end of next year are nearly neck-and-neck with Nvidia's

Shares of Alphabet have risen over 60% in 2025 due to its AI strategy.

Alphabet is currently the third-largest company in the world after it rose past Microsoft in market capitalization last month. And some people are putting money behind their belief that the Google parent could topple the two companies that rank above it in the coming year, as its artificial-intelligence advancements continue to propel the stock higher.

On Friday morning, the likelihood of Alphabet $(GOOGL)$ $(GOOG)$ becoming the largest company by December 2026 was at 33% on the prediction market Polymarket, second only to Nvidia (NVDA) at 37%. Previously, the likelihoods for Nvidia and Alphabet had been matched at 36% each, which DataTrek Research cofounder Jessica Rabe pointed out in a Friday note.

Rabe called the prediction-market rankings "especially bullish" for Alphabet, namely for Google's large language model Gemini and its custom chips known as tensor processing units.

Currently, Nvidia and Apple $(AAPL)$ rank ahead of Alphabet in size. Overtaking Nvidia in market capitalization would not be an insignificant feat for Alphabet, as Nvidia has a market cap of $4.2 trillion, while Alphabet's is $3.7 trillion. Apple's market cap is $4 trillion.

Alphabet's advancements in its custom silicon have led some analysts to wonder if it will take market share away from Nvidia, as Alphabet has begun renting its TPUs to customers in addition to internal use. The launch of Gemini 3, which was trained on TPUs and outperformed OpenAI's ChatGPT on key benchmarks, has also been a sizable catalyst for the stock this year.

While Alphabet is still a ways behind Nvidia, becoming the No. 1 company in the market by next year isn't implausible. Back in September, MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson wrote about such an outcome, arguing that Alphabet's diverse business lines and accelerating cloud growth position the company "not only as a winner in the [generative AI] era but as a company that should rightly be considered for the title of most valuable company in the world."

'Shares of Alphabet have rallied 61% in 2025, putting them on track to be the best-performing "Magnificent Seven" name this year.

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