Asia Week Ahead: Trade Data, Inflation Reports, and Central Bank Highlights

MT Newswires12-22 16:12

The week ahead will be relatively light on releases as markets head into the Christmas holidays.

Monday brings China's loan prime rates, alongside inflation data from Malaysia and Hong Kong.

On Tuesday, investors will parse minutes from Australia's central bank meeting for clues on how officials approached their most recent rate decision.

Midweek, focus shifts to Japan, where the Bank of Japan's own release is expected to offer context on its recent rate increase.

Most major markets will be closed on Thursday for the Christmas holiday.

The week wraps up on Friday with a batch of Japanese data, before China rounds things out on Saturday with its industrial profits report.

Here's what to watch in the week ahead.

MONDAY, Dec. 22

The week kicked off with the announcement of China's one-year and five-year loan prime rates.

The People's Bank of China maintained interest at 3% and 3.5% as expected, marking the seventh straight month the central bank has left the rate unchanged.

With 2025 in the rear view, economists at ING said the loan prime rates would be a "non-event" as they did not expect any changes.

Malaysia's November inflation data showed that prices rose 1.4% year on year, marginally higher than the 1.3% recorded in the previous month but below the 1.5% consensus compiled by Trading Economics.

November inflation data would highlight how government policy is shaping prices in Malaysia, particularly as Kuala Lumpur shifts the scope of the country-wide sales tax, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing MBSB Research.

Later Monday, Taiwan will release its November labor data, while Hong Kong will release inflation stats.

TUESDAY, Dec. 23

The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its meeting minutes for the most recent policy decision, offering clues on deliberations and potential conditions for a hike, Westpac said in a preview.

Australia's central bank decided to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 3.60% at its December meeting, taking a cautious approach as economic activity showed signs of recovery.

Westpac Economics previously revised its outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate to an extended hold for the whole of 2026, noting that while inflation is expected to moderate during the reported year, it will not be soon enough to induce the central bank to step back from its current hawkish view of the risks.

Taiwan's November export orders should show a 30.3% year-over-year rise in shipments during the month, ING predicted. The island state is expected to continue its "solid run" during the period, thanks to the strength in electronic and information and communication products, the bank said.

Also due Tuesday are inflation figures from Singapore.

WEDNESDAY, Dec. 24

The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting minutes will give markets an insight into the central bank's recent decision to raise its key short-term interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%.

The widely expected move marked the central bank's second rate increase this year, bringing borrowing costs to their highest level since 1995.

Thailand will report November trade data, with Trading Economics expecting the country's trade deficit to narrow to $1 billion from the $3.44 billion reported a month earlier.

Meanwhile, Taiwan will release industrial production and retail sales growth figures for November.

ING sees Taiwan's industrial production growth rate slowing down to 11.8% year-on-year during the month from 14.5% in October.

THURSDAY, Dec. 25

Most global markets will be off for the Christmas holiday.

FRIDAY, Dec. 26

Japan will dominate headlines as it releases a flurry of data, including the Tokyo core consumer price index for December, which markets will use as an early indicator for the overall inflation rate in the country.

Data is likely to show that consumer inflation, excluding fresh food prices, decelerated to 2.5% during December from the 2.8% increase witnessed in November, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.

Other releases include November unemployment data, preliminary industrial production figures, as well as retail sales stats.

Retail sales are expected to climb during the month, thanks to "robust" wage growth, ING said. More importantly, the data is unlikely to show any significant negative effects from the decrease in Chinese tourists in the aftermath of a diplomatic fallout between Tokyo and Beijing.

Meanwhile, industrial output is likely to witness a 0.5% decline in November from the 1.7% growth recorded a month prior, ING said.

The Philippines releases November trade data. According to Trading Economics, the country's trade deficit is expected to widen to $5.1 billion from the $3.82 billion recorded in October.

Other releases scheduled for the day include industrial production figures from Singapore and November unemployment data from Macao.

SATURDAY, Dec. 27

The week rounds off with the release of the November industrial profits report from China.

According to The Wall Street Journal, markets will await the results to determine how firms are dealing with excess-capacity pressures. Trading Economics expects industrial profits to have accelerated to 2.2% in the first eleven months of the year, compared to 1.9% as of end October.

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap
Leave a comment