Average natural gas output in US hit record high of 109.9 bcfd so far in December, LSEG says
Goldman says warm weather trims gas demand, but power use offsets loss
Speculators lift US natgas net longs by 7,874 contracts for week ended December 9, CFTC data shows
By Anmol Choubey
Dec 22 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell by nearly 2% on Monday, pressured by higher production and forecasts for warmer weather that could curb heating demand.
Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.9%, to $3.901 per million British thermal units at 09:40 AM ET (1440 GMT).
"The production has definitely surprised people, so that is another contributing factor along with the weather forecast that is above normal," said Kyle Cooper, energy market analyst at IAF Advisors.
Financial firm LSEG said that average natural gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states climbed to a record high of 109.9 billion cubic feet per day so far in December, surpassing November's monthly record of 109.6 bcfd.
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CURB DEMAND
Meteorologists forecast weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through January 6, keeping the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year.
"While we estimate warmer weather forecasts have removed 102 bcf of support to gas demand out of the 155 bcf of weather-driven support we had estimated in our previous balance, this heating-demand softening is more than offset by incremental price-driven support to forward power demand for gas," Goldman Sachs said in a note.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 127.5 bcfd this week to 133.3 bcfd over the next two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants have risen to 18.5 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.
"LNG supply is projected to increase by 10% in 2026, the strongest year-on-year growth since before the COVID pandemic. However, just as the LNG market reaches a new peak for capacity coming online, final investment decisions for the next wave of supply will slow," S&P Global Energy said in a note.
Natural gas speculators in four major NYMEX and ICE markets increased their net long positions by 7,874 contracts to a total of 239,757 in the week ending December 9, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.
An increasing net long position means that traders have added more contracts that bet on a rise in natural gas prices compared to those betting on a decline, reflecting bullish sentiment in the market.
On the geopolitical front, the U.S. Coast Guard is pursuing an oil tanker in international waters near Venezuela, officials told Reuters on Sunday, in what would be the second such operation this weekend and the third in less than two weeks if successful.
Separately, a liquefied natural gas tanker has loaded a cargo from Russia's Portovaya LNG plant that is under Western sanctions over Moscow's war in Ukraine, ship-tracking data showed.
Week ended Dec 19 Forecast | Week ended Dec 12 Actual | Year ago Dec 19 | Five-year average Dec 19 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -154 | -167 | -98 | -110 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,425 | 3,579 | 3,542 | 3,437 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -0.3% | +0.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.90 | 3.94 | 3.41 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | N/A | 9.72 | 13.83 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 9.67 | 9.56 | 14.34 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 349 | 327 | 374 | 446 | 424 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 7 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 356 | 334 | 377 | 449 | 428 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.3 | 111.0 | 110.4 | N/A | 99.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 10.4 | 9.7 | 10.0 | N/A | 8.9 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | N/A | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 119.8 | 120.7 | 120.4 | N/A | 108.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 3.6 | 4.3 | 4.3 | N/A | 3.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.0 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.3 | 18.1 | 18.0 | N/A | 12.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 17.9 | 14.4 | 15.7 | N/A | 14.9 |
U.S. Residential | 30.3 | 23.0 | 26.0 | N/A | 24.2 |
U.S. Power Plant | 34.9 | 29.0 | 30.0 | N/A | 33.6 |
U.S. Industrial | 26.1 | 24.7 | 24.9 | N/A | 25.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | N/A | 5.7 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 3.1 | 2.6 | 2.8 | N/A | 4.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | N/A | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 117.8 | 99.3 | 105.0 | N/A | 108.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 145.3 | 127.5 | 133.3 | N/A | 129.5 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 101 | 101 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 101 | 101 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 105 | 104 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Dec 26 | Week ended Dec 19 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 17 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
33 | 37 | 42 | 41 | 38 | |
Coal | 17 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 21 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub | 3.58 | 3.87 | 3.02 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York | 3.59 | 3.84 | 3.31 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate | 2.63 | 2.99 | 3.42 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) | 3.07 | 3.41 | 2.70 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate | 3.20 | 3.53 | 2.82 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate | 9.16 | 5.33 | 8.16 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate | 3.09 | 3.22 | 3.54 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub | -0.57 | 0.70 | 2.28 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO | N/A | 2.16 | 1.26 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
126.13 | 65.61 | 85.01 | 47.35 | 48.44 | |
PJM West | 63.52 | 51.82 | 43.03 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C | 25.93 | 20.45 | 42.33 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde | 25.68 | 20.10 | 32.02 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 | 37.05 | 30.77 | 39.19 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; editing by Barbara Lewis)
((anmol.choubey@thomsonreuters.com; +91-9473732332;))
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