By Giulia Petroni
A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of Dec. 22-26 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The broader macroeconomic backdrop has steadied after last week's U.S. inflation data, with investor focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path for next year. The near-term calendar is quiet ahead of the Christmas holiday, with no major economic releases or central-bank decisions scheduled.
Delayed Commitments of Traders data from Dec. 9 showed heavy selling across agricultural markets, driven by weaker-than-expected Chinese buying, benign South American weather and soft global cash prices, according to Peak Trading Research. Meanwhile, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is set to release a new report on Tuesday with data from Dec. 16, and the first fully "normal" Tuesday-Friday week will be Jan. 9.
"Seasonals are bullish in December, and we've just entered the most seasonally bullish 60-day period of the year for the agriculture complex. Prices tend to rise from mid-December to mid-February," analysts at Peak Trading said. "This bullish setup comes from the usual stock market Santa rally, South American weather risks, attention to index rebalancing, and the fresh interest in holding commodities into a new calendar year."
Weather across South America remains largely favorable. Forecasts call for supportive rains in northern and central Brazil, aiding early soybean development, while scattered showers in Argentina are easing near-term La Nina-related yield concerns.
Chicago wheat futures rose 1.3% to $5.16 a bushel in European afternoon trading Monday, while corn was up 0.8% to $4.47 a bushel. Soybean prices gained 0.6% to $10.66 a bushel.
SOFT COMMODITIES: Coffee prices rose 0.6% to $3.43 a pound and are set for annual gains of more than 6%, though expectations of ample supply from Brazil and Vietnam are limiting further gains.
Cocoa climbed 1.3% to $5,921.10 a ton, even as traders look ahead to a projected surplus in the 2025-26 season amid improved supply and softer demand. Elevated prices in the prior season curtailed consumption, and analysts expect buyers to stay cautious.
Sugar rose 1.2% to 15 cents a pound but is on track for a yearly loss of more than 20%, driven by an improving supply outlook that is expected to weigh on prices next year.
Near-term softness is likely to continue, driven by an acceleration in Brazil's sugarcane harvest, according to BMI. In the center-south region, harvesting activity rose 14% year on year in the second half of October, lifting sugar output by 16%.
"This robust output occurred despite rising sugarcane diversion to ethanol--a dynamic that moderates sugar supply and prevents precipitous price declines," analysts at the firm said. BMI said it expects limited scope for significant additional downside from current levels in 2026 as the global supply picture remains favorable.
Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 22, 2025 08:45 ET (13:45 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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