Elon Musk, Trillionaire? What Has to Happen to Make That a Reality. -- Barrons.com

Dow Jones04:35

Al Root

Elon Musk had arguably had the greatest year of wealth creation in human history. That isn't a value judgment on Mr. Musk, his businesses or wealth. It just is what it is.

He's going to make more in 2026.

There are a number of estimates for Musk's wealth that vary mainly by the numbers used to value his privately held companies, which include SpaceX and xAI.

Barron's pegs Musk's fortune at roughly $750 billion, based on the most aggressive numbers in published reports and with the help of private company exchange Rainmaker Securities. That's up an incredible $400 billion in 2025 if we remove and add back the stock options in Musk's 2018 Tesla pay award.

That 2018 pay award was voided by a Delaware judge, twice, in 2024, before the Delaware Supreme Court overturned her decision.

It's a tidy sum that implies it took Musk less than seven seconds to earn what the average U.S. household makes in a year.

To be sure, the treatment of Musk's 2018 options makes his 2025 look better. Still, without the options, he's added about $250 billion in wealth, which is roughly what the No. 2 person on the Forbes list of richest humans, Alphabet co-founder Larry Page, is worth.

Through late December, Tesla stock was up roughly 20% year to date, adding billions, but the biggest reason for Musk's epic year, even bigger than the Delaware Supreme Court or xAI's merger with X, is SpaceX. Musk owns an estimated 40% of the company, and its valuation has gone from roughly $350 billion to $800 billion, boosted by optimism about its space-based broadband service Starlink, which has more than eight million customers, and the potential for SpaceX to run AI data centers from orbit.

Predicting that Musk would make more than any person in human history, in just one year, seemed, well, insane early in 2025. Musk and President Donald Trump's relationship was deteriorating. Tesla sales were falling as investors weighed how Musk's politics were affecting his car company's brand. And President Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariffs sent the Nasdaq Composite into bear market territory. Musk was worth a mere $300 billion in early April, excluding the options still in limbo.

Things recovered. And Musk's $750 billion fortune completely excludes the roughly 425 million shares awarded by Tesla shareholders in November. He hasn't earned those yet. To get all of the stock, he has to make Tesla worth roughly $8.5 trillion, which would earn Musk about $1 trillion.

He will likely be a trillionaire before he earns any of that stock. All it would take is a successful SpaceX IPO, which Musk seemed to endorse on X in December. Initial reports indicated the rocket company responsible for more than half of all orbital launches globally could seek a $1.5 trillion valuation, which would earn Musk another $300 billion or so. That's enough to crack $1 trillion, even if Tesla stock stays flat or dips a little.

Arguments over who was the wealthiest person in human history break down the way arguments over sports stars falter. Eras matter. It's hard to compare ancient kings, Astor, Carnegie, Rockefeller, and Gates to Musk.

That's the company he is in, though. John D. Rockefeller is considered by some to be the wealthiest human since his nearly $1 billion fortune early in the 20th century equated to roughly 2% of U.S. GDP.

Musk at a trillion would be closer to 3% of U.S. GDP.

It's an unimaginable sum, built on Musk's vision to put humanity on a path for a sustainable future.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

 

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December 23, 2025 15:35 ET (20:35 GMT)

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