Front-month contract up 9.6% this week
Meteorologists see drop in temperatures through January 10
Freeport LNG resumes all liquefaction trains after feed gas disruption
Adds closing prices
By Anmol Choubey
Dec 26 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose on Friday in thin-volume trading and logged a weekly gain, ending a two-week losing streak, as forecasts pointed to colder weather and increased demand in the weeks ahead.
Front-month gas futures for January delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 12.4 cents, or 2.9% at $4.366 per million British thermal units. The contract was up 9.6% for the week.
Prices reached their highest level since December 11, at $4.593 in the previous session, before settling 3.8% lower for the day.
"There's going to be thinner volume on the holiday week, meaning it will take less contracts to move the price materially, but the real storyline here again is the colder weather models, specifically for the eastern half of the U.S.," said Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis.
Meteorologists forecast a slight drop in temperatures nationwide through January 10, with Heating Degree Days increasing from 377 on Wednesday to 398 on Friday, still below the normal level of 449, but forecasters anticipate colder weather in the days ahead.
"That colder pattern is certainly tightening balances as we approach year-end and into early January, which is a good sign for natural gas to be able to work back from the recent sell-off," DiDona said.
Financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 136.1 bcfd this week to 138.5 bcfd over the next two weeks. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Wednesday.
LSEG said average natural gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states climbed to a record high of 109.8 billion cubic feet per day in December, surpassing November's monthly record of 109.6 bcfd.
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. liquefied natural gas export plants have risen to 18.4 bcfd so far this month, up from a monthly record high of 18.2 bcfd in November.
U.S. LNG exporter Freeport LNG confirmed on Wednesday that all three liquefaction trains at its 2.2-bcfd Texas plant have resumed operations following a temporary trip caused by a disruption in feed gas supply.
Meanwhile, natural gas speculators in four major NYMEX and ICE markets decreased their net long positions by 75,292 contracts to a total of 164,467 in the week ending December 16, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Wednesday.
In other news, Russia has pushed back by "several years" a plan to reach an annual liquefied natural gas output target of 100 million metric tons, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told state TV on Thursday, citing the effect of Western sanctions on its energy industry.
Week ended Dec 19 Forecast | Week ended Dec 12 Actual | Year ago Dec 19 | Five-year average Dec 19 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -170 | -167 | -98 | -110 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,409 | 3,579 | 3,542 | 3,437 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -0.8% | +0.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 4.29 | 4.24 | 3.41 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | - | 9.75 | 13.83 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | - | 9.63 | 14.34 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 398 | 377 | 409 | 432 | 449 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 5 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 403 | 384 | 411 | 436 | 452 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 111.1 | 110.8 | 110.1 | N/A | 99.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 9.9 | 9.8 | 10.1 | N/A | 8.9 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | N/A | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 121.0 | 120.6 | 120.2 | N/A | 108.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | N/A | 3.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.6 | 5.8 | 5.9 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.1 | 18.3 | 18.0 | N/A | 12.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 14.1 | 16.4 | 16.8 | N/A | 14.9 |
U.S. Residential | 22.3 | 27.1 | 28.0 | N/A | 24.2 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.6 | 30.5 | 31.5 | N/A | 33.6 |
U.S. Industrial | 24.6 | 25.3 | 25.6 | N/A | 25.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.4 | N/A | 5.7 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | N/A | 4.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | N/A | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 98.9 | 107.7 | 110.4 | N/A | 108.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 126.8 | 136.1 | 138.5 | N/A | 129.5 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 99 | 98 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 100 | 98 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 105 | 104 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Dec 26 | Week ended Dec 19 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 15 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
35 | 37 | 42 | 41 | 38 | |
Coal | 17 | 19 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 21 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.314 | 3.375 | 3.02 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 3.69 | 2.949 | 3.31 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.43 | 2.34 | 3.42 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.889 | 2.688 | 2.70 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.105 | 2.756 | 2.82 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 14.25 | 9.5 | 8.16 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.81 | 2.767 | 3.54 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | -1.176 | -2.775 | 2.28 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 2.657 | 2.623 | 1.26 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 160 | 90.71 | 85.01 | 47.35 | 48.44 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 45.01 | 34.42 | 43.03 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | - | 17.55 | 42.33 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | - | 22.4 | 32.02 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | - | 26.54 | 39.19 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Vijay Kishore and Nick Zieminski)
((anmol.choubey@thomsonreuters.com; +91-9473732332;))
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