Meteorologists see drop in temperature through January 13
Energy firms pulled 166 billion cubic feet of gas in the week ending Dec. 19
Average gas flows to eight large U.S. LNG export plants at record high
Adds closing prices
By Noel John
Dec 30 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures settled steady on Tuesday, dipping after rising 4% during the session on expectations of higher demand in the coming weeks due to colder weather and record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants.
Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 1.4 cents, or 0.4%, lower at $3.972 per million British thermal units.
"January's now coming around the corner and typically in January you're going to get some cold weather," said Thomas Saal, senior vice president for energy trading at StoneX Financial.
Saal added that the difference between the February contract and January settlement price also contributed to market activity, as traders sought to close the gap.
On Monday, the January gas futures contract settled 7.4% higher at $4.69 per mmBtu.
Meteorologists forecast a drop in temperatures nationwide through January 13, with Heating Degree Days rising from 412 on Monday to 439 on Tuesday, exceeding the near-normal level of 394. HDDs measure energy demand to heat buildings.
Record U.S. gas flows to LNG export plants further bolstered prices. Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export facilities climbed to 18.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in December, exceeding November's record of 18.2 bcfd.
On Monday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a weekly storage withdrawal of 166 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas for the week ending December 19, in line with the 168-bcf draw expected in a Reuters poll. This compares with a 98-bcf withdrawal in the same week last year and a five-year average pull of 110 bcf. EIA/GAS
Financial firm LSEG projected average gas demand in the lower 48 states, including exports, would edge higher from 137.1 bcfd this week to 138 bcfd next week, lifting its Monday projection.
LSEG said average natural gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states climbed to 110.1 billion cubic feet per day in December, surpassing November's monthly record of 109.6 bcfd.
Meanwhile, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices fell on Tuesday as strong wind power output reduced the need for gas-fired generation, even as colder temperatures boosted heating demand across Europe. NG/EU
Russia's exports of liquefied natural gas declined by 2.5% in 2025 to 31.3 million metric tons, preliminary LSEG data showed on Tuesday, amid Western sanctions over Ukraine.
Week ended Dec 19 Actual | Week ended Dec 12 Actual | Year ago Dec 19 | Five-year average Dec 19 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -166 | -167 | -98 | -110 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,413 | 3,579 | 3,542 | 3,437 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | -0.7% | +0.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.99 | 4.37 | 3.41 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 9.52 | 9.82 | 13.83 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 9.69 | - | 14.34 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 439 | 412 | 387 | 381 | 394 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 443 | 416 | 388 | 384 | 397 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 111.1 | 110.7 | 110.5 | N/A | 99.3 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 9.9 | 10.3 | 9.7 | N/A | 8.9 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | N/A | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 121.0 | 121.0 | 120.2 | N/A | 108.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | N/A | 3.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.7 | N/A | 5.4 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.1 | 18.7 | 18.4 | N/A | 12.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 14.1 | 17.1 | 17.1 | N/A | 14.9 |
U.S. Residential | 22.4 | 28.5 | 28.2 | N/A | 24.2 |
U.S. Power Plant | 29.4 | 29.5 | 30.3 | N/A | 33.6 |
U.S. Industrial | 24.7 | 25.6 | 25.7 | N/A | 25.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | N/A | 5.7 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.9 | N/A | 4.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | N/A | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 98.9 | 109.1 | 109.7 | N/A | 108.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 126.8 | 137.1 | 138.0 | N/A | 129.5 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | - | 98 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | - | 97 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | - | 102 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jan 02 | Week ended Dec 26 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 14 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
35 | 34 | 42 | 41 | 38 | |
Coal | 16 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 22 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 4.35 | - | 3.02 | 2.19 | 3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 7.19 | - | 3.31 | 1.98 | 3.29 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.83 | - | 3.42 | 3.04 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 3.73 | - | 2.70 | 1.68 | 2.77 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 3.94 | - | 2.82 | 2.00 | 3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 16.25 | - | 8.16 | 2.88 | 4.27 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.45 | - | 3.54 | 2.47 | 5.92 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.21 | - | 2.28 | 0.77 | 2.91 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 2.61 | - | 1.26 | 0.96 | 2.28 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 143 | - | 85.01 | 47.35 | 48.44 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 62.89 | 50.63 | 43.03 | 41.98 | 45.33 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 28.01 | 26.54 | 42.33 | 63.89 | 61.73 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 26 | 19.38 | 32.02 | 39.50 | 62.42 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 35.10 | 24.13 | 39.19 | 31.30 | 58.87 |
(Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and David Gregorio)
((Noel.John@thomsonreuters.com;))
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