The U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Saturday -- coupled with President Donald Trump's plan to have the U.S. effectively run the country until a "proper" transition -- injected a fresh bout of volatility into global politics, forcing countries to further reassess their relationships with the U.S. and its role on the world stage.
While most investment strategists expect limited near-term market impact, geopolitical analysts said Saturday's events further rattle the norms that have managed the global order for decades and could increase concerns about geopolitical tripwires -- like Taiwan, the self-ruled island China considers its own.
The strike follows months of building tension between the U.S. and oil-rich Venezuela that have included airstrikes on people at sea the U.S. has said were involved in drug smuggling and seizing of oil tankers.
During a press conference on Saturday, Trump said U.S. oil companies would spend billions on fixing Venezuela's oil infrastructure, "taking a tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground" and sharing some of the revenue with Venezuelans.
"American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again," Trump said, adding that the U.S. would protect assets and resources core to its national security.
The comment underscored the administration's efforts heightened focus on the region in its National Security Strategy that came out in December -- days before China released a paper reinforcing its commitment to Latin America, where it has vast investments in ports, energy, and other infrastructure.
A Chinese delegation had met with Venezuelan officials just hours before the strike. A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement condemned the strike and called on the U.S. to abide by international law.
Analysts don't expect the attacks to spoil the recent U.S.-China detente but see the move creating geopolitical ripples longer-term.
"It's significant symbolically. The U.S. has been warning Russia and China about violating the sovereignty of Ukraine and Taiwan -- that has been a glue for deterrence. That argument took a big hit because the U.S. can't claim the sovereignty card anymore," said Marc Gustafson, director of analysis at Eurasia Group and a former security and intelligence official.
Based on what happens in Venezuela in the next couple of weeks, strategists worry other global leaders could be emboldened. "Trump's decision to capture Maduro is a mixed bag for China. On one hand, it removes a leader who had been a consistent Chinese ally in Latin America. On the other hand, Washington's actions could provide a model for a future decapitate strike by China against Taiwan's leadership," said Zack Cooper, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, via email.
In an X post, Ryan Hass, director of the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution, played down the prospects the Venezuela strike changes Beijing's calculus about Taiwan. "Beijing could emphasize to Washington it expects to be given the same latitude for great power exemptions to international law that the U.S. takes for itself," he said. "Beijing will request the U.S. mute its invocations of international law in South China Seas and elsewhere."
One big question is who could be targeted next. Trump called out Mexico and Colombia, citing drug traffic, in his press conference. But analysts are more closely focused on Cuba, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying the government there should be concerned.
While the Chinese provide economic support to ally Cuba, any need for defense would likely rest on Russia, said Rodger Baker, executive director for the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at risk advisory firm RANE. But Russia has its hands full with Ukraine, raising the prospect that of a potential quiet deal with the administration where the Russians refrain from sending defense aid to Cuba for Eastern Ukraine, Baker says.
"We are moving from a balance of power around the globe to accepting spheres of influence," Baker says, which could see Trump focus on conflicts that are closer to home or aligned with certain interests.
If things go relatively smoothly in the next few weeks, that would enhance "a sense of American tenacity" and perception Trump has the capacity to go alone that could make others more conciliatory toward the U.S., said Jon Alterman, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and a former State Department official.
That is a big if, especially since it's not clear if the remaining parts of Maduro's regime are willing to work with the U.S. -- and if the U.S. can essentially manage a regime remotely.
For business and investors, the Venezuela strike is the latest reminder that local dynamics around the world could shape shorter-term trade flows, non-trade barriers, investment boycotts, and the flow of goods and capital, Baker says.
Another risk: A lack of clear coherent strategy driving the Trump administration as disparate views within the administration sometimes make it into policy.
The Trump administration's recent actions -- including strikes against the Islamic State in Nigeria to protect Christians and threats of military action against Iran's leaders if they suppress protests lethally -- suggests that U.S. policy in practice includes a values defense and promotion element not outlined in the administration's national security strategy, wrote Nicholas Redman of Oxford Analytica in a note that. ( Barron's and Oxford Analytica are both owned by Dow Jones.) The result, he said, is confusion and concern for U.S. rivals and allies alike.
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