Trump Tariff Checks: Betting Markets Skeptical Of Early Rollout, With Odds Under 15% Until May

Benzinga01-02

Prediction markets are signaling deep skepticism that President Donald Trump‘s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks will reach Americans in the first half of 2026, with traders giving virtually no...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2600051674?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/01/02/Washington--Dc---April-27--2018-Presiden.jpeg","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-01-02 15:34","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2600051674","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Trump Tariff Checks: Betting Markets Skeptical Of Early Rollout, With Odds Under 15% Until May","media":"Benzinga","content":"<div>\n<p>Prediction markets are signaling deep skepticism that President Donald Trump‘s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks will reach Americans in the first half of 2026, with traders giving virtually no...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/26/01/49662180/trump-tariff-checks-betting-markets-skeptical-of-early-rollout-with-odds-under-15-until-may\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"Benzinga","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Trump Tariff Checks: Betting Markets Skeptical Of Early Rollout, With Odds Under 15% Until May</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTrump Tariff Checks: Betting Markets Skeptical Of Early Rollout, With Odds Under 15% Until May\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-02 15:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/26/01/49662180/trump-tariff-checks-betting-markets-skeptical-of-early-rollout-with-odds-under-15-until-may><strong>Benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Prediction markets are signaling deep skepticism that President Donald Trump‘s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks will reach Americans in the first half of 2026, with traders giving virtually no...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/26/01/49662180/trump-tariff-checks-betting-markets-skeptical-of-early-rollout-with-odds-under-15-until-may\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SH","symbol_name":"做空标普500-Proshares","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/26/01/49662180/trump-tariff-checks-betting-markets-skeptical-of-early-rollout-with-odds-under-15-until-may","article_id":"2600051674","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/01/02/Washington--Dc---April-27--2018-Presiden.jpeg"],"rights":{"source":"Benzinga","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/26/01/49662180/trump-tariff-checks-betting-markets-skeptical-of-early-rollout-with-odds-under-15-until-may","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2600051674","pubTimestamp":1767339279,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"Benzinga","name":"Benzinga Cypto"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Prediction markets are skeptical of early Trump tariff checks, with Kalshi odds showing under 15% chance of payouts arriving before May.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BETZ":"Roundhill Sports Betting & iGaming ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4593":"纳斯达克ETF","BK4588":"碎股"},"translate_title":"特朗普关税检查：博彩市场对提前推出持怀疑态度，5月份之前赔率低于15%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"MESmain":0.6,"SH":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":1.61,"BETZ":1.51,"OEX":0.6,"VOO":0.73,"SSO":0.6,"SPY":1.61},"content_text":"Prediction markets are signaling deep skepticism that President Donald Trump‘s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks will reach Americans in the first half of 2026, with traders giving virtually no chance of an early-year payout.Betting On Delay: Creation Vs. CashData from prediction platforms reveals a sharp divergence between the program’s potential creation and the actual delivery of funds.On Polymarket, traders are giving the administration a coin-flip chance, pricing in a 45% probability that Trump will successfully create the tariff dividend program by June 30.However, markets are far more pessimistic about Americans seeing that money quickly. According to Kalshi, the odds of actually receiving a check “Before June” sit at just 15%—a significant 30-point gap compared to the creation odds.This disparity suggests that even if the policy is enacted by mid-year, bettors anticipate bureaucratic or legislative hurdles will delay the physical payouts for months.See Also: Trump’s Tariffs — And The Art Of The ReboundAdministration Timeline And HurdlesThis market pessimism aligns with recent administration statements pushing back the timeline.President Trump indicated the target for issuing checks is “mid-2026 or little bit later.”Furthermore, officials like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and NEC Director Kevin Hassett have emphasized that the proposal requires congressional approval to proceed.The Revenue GapBeyond legislative hurdles, the math presents a major challenge. Analyses indicate a “massive arithmetic gap,” with the program’s cost vastly outpacing tariff revenues.The Tax Foundation estimates the plan could cost up to $606.8 billion annually, far exceeding projected 2026 tariff revenues of $207.5 billion.Adding to the uncertainty, the government collected less in customs duties in November than in October.US Benchmarks End 2025 On Positive NoteIn 2025, the S&P 500 was 16.65% higher, whereas the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones gained 20.54% and 13.38%, respectively.However, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, closed lower on Wednesday. The SPY was down 0.74% at $681.92, while the QQQ declined 0.83% to $614.31, according to Benzinga Pro data.The futures of Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices were higher on Friday.Read Next:\nDollar Dominance To End In 2026? Greenback’s ‘Controlled Decline’ On Cards Amid Policy Uncertainty, Deficits, Rise Of Digital Assets\nDisclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.Photo courtesy: ShutterstockSPYSPDR S&P 500$682.500.09%OverviewQQQInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 1$614.26-0.01%Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs© 2026 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.1","shortVersion":"4.36.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2600051674","isCrawlerRequest":true}