By Alexander Ward, Dustin Volz and Vera Bergengruen
WASHINGTON -- A recent classified U.S. intelligence assessment determined top members of Nicolás Maduro's regime -- including Vice President Delcy Rodríguez -- would be best positioned to lead a temporary government in Caracas and maintain near-term stability if the autocrat lost power, people familiar with the matter said.
The analysis by the Central Intelligence Agency was briefed to President Trump and shared with a small circle of senior administration officials, according to two of the people. It was a factor in Trump's decision to back Maduro's vice president instead of opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, some of the people said.
The assessment provides insight into Trump's decision not to support the opposition's bid for control of Venezuela following the brazen U.S. military operation to capture Maduro last week and bring him to the U.S. for trial. As in his first term, Trump was convinced that near-term stability in Venezuela could be maintained only if Maduro's replacement had the support of the country's armed forces and other elites.
Senior Trump administration officials commissioned the CIA to undertake the analytical assessment and debated it during discussions about day-after plans for Venezuela, the people said. The people familiar with the assessment said they were unsure of the precise date it was produced.
The report was briefed to Trump in recent weeks, according to two of the people.
The assessment didn't describe how Maduro could lose power, or advocate for removing him, but attempted to gauge the domestic situation in Venezuela in the event that he did, people familiar with it said.
The intelligence report, the people said, cited Rodríguez and two other top Venezuelan regime figures as possible interim rulers who could keep order. The people familiar with the assessment didn't identify the other two officials, but besides Rodríguez, the two most influential power brokers are Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino.
The two hard-liners, who command Venezuela's police and military, could undo any efforts at a transition, according to former U.S. and Venezuelan officials. Both face U.S. criminal charges similar to those filed against Maduro and are unlikely to cooperate with Washington.
The report concluded that Edmundo González, widely seen as the actual winner of the 2024 election against Maduro, and Machado would struggle to gain legitimacy as leaders while facing resistance from pro-regime security services, drug-trafficking networks and political opponents.
Machado, who closely aligned herself with the Trump administration, has consistently praised his aggressive policy against Maduro. In October, she said Trump deserved the Nobel Peace Prize she had won and dedicated it to him for his "decisive support of our cause."
Maduro, extracted to New York City, appeared in court Monday to face federal charges of narco-terrorism. He pleaded not guilty.
Late last year, the CIA cultivated a source within Maduro's inner circle who provided information on his whereabouts, The Wall Street Journal previously reported. The spy agency's close tracking of Maduro's location, which leveraged other surveillance elements including stealth drones, allowed the Army's Delta Force to nab him and his wife during the raid, people familiar with the operation said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other senior officials briefed a bipartisan group of lawmakers Monday afternoon on the administration's handling of Venezuela.
Latin America analysts have previously cautioned, including during Trump's first term, that Maduro's ouster without a capable replacement would likely empower armed military factions, rival politicians and criminal groups within Venezuela as they fought for control, leading to a security crisis in the country.
David Smilde, a professor at Tulane University who focuses on Venezuela, said it was "magical realism" to expect that Machado or another opposition leader could sweep into power. The better course after ousting Maduro, he said, was to compel Rodríguez to initiate a transition of power, but the problem is that it doesn't appear that "anyone in the U.S. is actively engaging in negotiations."
"The president and his national-security team are making realistic decisions to finally ensure Venezuela aligns with the interests of the United States, and becomes a better country for the Venezuelan people," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement. She declined to comment specifically on the intelligence assessment.
The Trump administration has offered shifting narratives for how it aims to work with Rodríguez, Venezuela's acting president, who is seen by the U.S. as a pragmatic political operator. Despite initially striking a defiant tone, on Sunday she signaled her willingness to work with the U.S. and has spoken with Rubio.
In a series of television interviews Sunday, Rubio said the U.S. would coerce Rodríguez to act in America's interests by enforcing a military "quarantine" to intercept sanctioned oil tankers, starving Venezuela of oil revenue. But hours later, Trump affirmed his preference for direct rule without specifying how Washington would dictate terms in Caracas.
"We're in charge," he told reporters. "We need total access. We need access to the oil and to other things in their country that allow us to rebuild their country."
Trump's embrace of Rodríguez and rejection of the Machado-led opposition blindsided Machado's aides and many of her U.S. supporters on Saturday. Machado "doesn't have the support or the respect within the country" to take over in a democratic transition, Trump said.
Previously, Trump and his top allies had publicly elevated Machado's opposition movement as the best choice to inherit power in a transition. In a Truth Social post in January, Trump praised Machado for "peacefully expressing the voices and the WILL of the Venezuelan people." Rubio -- one of her most prominent backers, who has said he has spoken with her "many, many times over the years" -- signed a letter nominating her for the Nobel Peace Prize. Others close to Trump, including his son, Don Trump Jr., also frequently promoted her as the future of Venezuelan democracy.
But privately, Trump has been wary of backing Venezuela's opposition after concluding it failed to deliver in his first term, says Juan Cruz, who served as the top White House official handling Latin American policy at the time.
Trump imposed sweeping sanctions on Venezuela's state oil company, isolated Maduro diplomatically and sought to spur a rebellion in the military. The effort failed when neither the armed forces nor the broader population rose up, reinforcing Trump's view that the opposition overpromised and underperformed.
"Trump sees the opposition as losers, as they failed to deliver," Cruz said. "It's an opposition that he sees as unimpressive and having come up short, so why would you just turn it over to them?"
Write to Alexander Ward at alex.ward@wsj.com, Dustin Volz at dustin.volz@wsj.com and Vera Bergengruen at vera.bergengruen@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
In a Truth Social post last January, Trump praised Machado for "peacefully expressing the voices and the WILL of the Venezuelan people." "CIA Concluded Regime Loyalists Were Best Placed to Lead Venezuela After Maduro," at 5:04 p.m. and 7:30 p.m. ET on Jan. 5, incorrectly said the post was from this month.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 06, 2026 08:32 ET (13:32 GMT)
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