China May See Trump's Maduro Ouster as Precedent for Taiwan, BMI Says -- Market Talk

Dow Jones01-05

0924 GMT - There is a risk that President Trump's removal of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro could be cited as justification for a hypothetical future move by Mainland China against Taiwan's leadership, BMI says in a note.In the event of an attack, Beijing could point to Trump's action as a precedent to deflect international criticism, BMI says. China has sought to gain control of Taiwan for decades, and this remains a geopolitical priority, it says. Trump's military operation against Maduro highlights his high tolerance for risk-taking, while a more assertive U.S. foreign policy is likely to heighten geopolitical risk this year, BMI adds. That said, China is likely to avoid a full-scale conflict with Taiwan for the foreseeable future, given the risk of becoming embroiled in a prolonged war with heavy casualties, BMI writes. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

January 05, 2026 04:24 ET (09:24 GMT)

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Trump's military operation against Maduro highlights his high tolerance for risk-taking, while a more assertive U.S. foreign policy is likely to heighten geopolitical risk this year, BMI adds. That said, China is likely to avoid a full-scale conflict with Taiwan for the foreseeable future, given the risk of becoming embroiled in a prolonged war with heavy casualties, BMI writes. 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China has sought to gain control of Taiwan for decades, and this remains a geopolitical priority, it says. Trump's military operation against Maduro highlights his high tolerance for risk-taking, while a more assertive U.S. foreign policy is likely to heighten geopolitical risk this year, BMI adds. That said, China is likely to avoid a full-scale conflict with Taiwan for the foreseeable future, given the risk of becoming embroiled in a prolonged war with heavy casualties, BMI writes. 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