Assessing Exelon (EXC) Valuation After ComEd’s New Transmission Security Agreements

Simply Wall St.01-08

AdvertisementWhat ComEd’s new agreements mean for Exelon stock Exelon (EXC) is back in focus after its utility unit ComEd introduced Transmission Security Agreements that shift more grid connection ...

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See our latest analysis for Exelon. Even with the recent softness in Exelon’s share price, including a 1 day share price return of 1.94% decline and a 90 day share price return of 7.87% decline to US$42.99, longer term total shareholder return of 16.66% over one year and 68.13% over five years points to momentum built over time, as investors weigh news such as ComEd’s Transmission Security Agreements and upcoming earnings against perceived risks and growth potential. If you are looking beyond utilities, this could be a good moment to see how the market is pricing other regulated businesses and essential services through healthcare stocks. With EXC trading at US$42.99 and sitting at an intrinsic and analyst target discount, plus solid 1 year and 5 year total returns, you have to ask: is there still mispricing here, or is future growth already baked in? Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 12.9% Undervalued With Exelon last closing at US$42.99 against a most-followed fair value gauge of about US$49.35, the current setup centers on how earnings and regulated assets evolve from here.  The significant identified pipeline (US$10B to US$15B) in future transmission projects, combined with proven success in competitive bidding, provides clear visibility for outsized capital investment prospects that are expected to increase the regulated asset base and deliver compounding earnings and cash flow growth.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what sits behind that projected buildout? The narrative leans on measured revenue growth, firmer margins, and a richer future earnings multiple. The exact mix might surprise you. Result: Fair Value of $49.35 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, the story can change quickly if regulators push back on cost recovery, or if severe storms raise grid expenses faster than commissions allow Exelon to recoup. Find out about the key risks to this Exelon narrative.  Build Your Own Exelon Narrative If you think the numbers tell a different story, or you would rather shape the thesis yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes by starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Exelon research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you stop with just one stock on your radar, you risk missing out on other opportunities that might fit your style and goals even better.  Spot potential bargains early by scanning these 885 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that the market may be pricing below their underlying cash flow strength. Ride emerging themes by checking out these 26 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence trends across different parts of the economy. Strengthen your income focus by zeroing in on these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that can complement a returns profile built around regular payouts.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Exelon might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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