RBA to Hold Cash Rate at 3.6% Through 2026, BofA Securities Forecasts

MT Newswires Live01-08

BofA Securities retained its call that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold the cash rate at 3.6% through 2026 after the release of the November inflation data, according to a Wednesday note by the firm.

However, it added that near-term risks skew towards a rate hike, and its revised 0.9% December quarter quarter-over-quarter trimmed mean forecast suggests that the central bank's February meeting will be "a very close call."

Australia's consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.4% in the 12 months to November 2025, easing from a 3.8% increase in the year to October 2025, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Trimmed mean inflation was 3.2% in the 12 months to November 2025.

Housing was the largest and most persistent component of the CPI, suggesting rising housing inflation may continue to push headline inflation higher in the coming months, it added.

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