A Look At Evolv Technologies Holdings (EVLV) Valuation As Growth Expectations Meet Premium Pricing

Simply Wall St.01-08

AdvertisementStock performance snapshot and business profile Evolv Technologies Holdings (EVLV) has been drawing attention after recent trading moves, with the stock showing mixed short term returns, ...

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The US based security technology company focuses on AI driven weapons detection systems for venues such as schools, hospitals, sports arenas, entertainment sites and industrial workplaces, supported by products like Evolv Express and its analytics platform. See our latest analysis for Evolv Technologies Holdings. At a share price of $7.30, Evolv Technologies Holdings has seen short term share price momentum cool after recent gains. However, its 1 year total shareholder return of 107.98% and 3 year total shareholder return of 208.02% point to a period where investors have been willing to reassess both its growth potential and risk profile, even with a 5 year total shareholder return decline of 28.85% still in the background. If the recent moves in Evolv have you thinking about where else AI focused security and detection themes might show up, it could be worth scanning high growth tech and AI stocks as a next step. With revenue of $136.501m, a loss of $59.74m and a value score of 2, Evolv appears to be a high growth, high risk story. At $7.30, is this a potential entry point, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 23.2% Undervalued With Evolv Technologies Holdings last closing at $7.30 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of $9.50, the gap comes down to how optimistic you are about future growth, margins and valuation multiples.  The analysts have a consensus price target of $9.5 for Evolv Technologies Holdings based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you would need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $208.0 million, earnings will come to $18.8 million, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 126.9x, assuming you use a discount rate of 8.1%.  Read the complete narrative. If you are curious what sits behind that high implied P/E and revenue step up, especially for a company that is still loss making today, the full narrative spells out the revenue path, margin shift and share count assumptions that need to line up for that $9.50 fair value to make sense. Result: Fair Value of $9.50 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, the story could shift quickly if large public sector contracts slow or if higher hardware and operating costs weigh on margins longer than analysts expect. Find out about the key risks to this Evolv Technologies Holdings narrative. Another View: What The Market Is Paying Today While the most popular narrative points to Evolv Technologies Holdings trading 23.2% below a $9.50 fair value, the current P/S of 9.3x paints a tougher picture. That multiple sits above the US Electronic industry at 2.6x and the fair ratio of 3.6x, even though it is below the peer average of 23x. In simple terms, the market is already attaching a premium price tag to Evolv compared with the broader industry. This can limit room for error if growth or margins fall short. The question is whether you think its business model and contracts justify paying up at this level. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NasdaqCM:EVLV P/S Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Evolv Technologies Holdings Narrative If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can build a custom Evolv view in just a few minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your Evolv Technologies Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Evolv has you thinking bigger about your portfolio, do not stop here. Use the same data driven tools to spot other opportunities that fit your style.  Explore potential high growth stories at the smaller end of the market with these 3554 penny stocks with strong financials that already show stronger financial footing. Tap into cutting edge themes by scanning these 26 AI penny stocks that are building their businesses around artificial intelligence. Search for potential mispriced opportunities by filtering for these 875 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may not yet be on everyone else's radar.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Evolv Technologies Holdings might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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