A Look At Amplitude (AMPL) Valuation After Revenue Beat And AI-Focused Quarter

Simply Wall St.01-08

Amplitude (AMPL) is back in focus after its latest quarter, as revenue grew 17.7% year on year and the company exceeded analysts' estimates for revenue, billings, and EBITDA despite pressure on data ...

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See our latest analysis for Amplitude. The stronger quarter has come alongside a 12.4% 90-day share price return and a 9.1% total shareholder return over the past year, suggesting momentum has been improving as investors reassess Amplitude’s growth profile and execution. If this quarter has you looking beyond a single name, it could be a good moment to widen your tech watchlist with high growth tech and AI stocks and see what else is gaining interest. With shares up over the last year and the stock trading about 31% below the average analyst price target, the key question now is whether Amplitude is still underappreciated or if the recent strength already reflects its future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 25.7% Undervalued Based on the most followed narrative, Amplitude’s fair value sits meaningfully above the last close of $11.64, setting up a valuation story driven by recurring revenue, AI products, and platform depth.  The trend of digital transformation and the shift toward unified, data-driven business processes are creating tailwinds, as more customers seek to consolidate legacy and point solutions onto integrated platforms like Amplitude, driving both new logo acquisition and major upsell/cross-sell opportunities, which in turn can support durable, long-term revenue growth and improved free cash flow visibility.  Read the complete narrative. Curious how this view translates into a higher fair value? The narrative leans on steady double digit revenue growth, margin uplift, and a future earnings multiple above typical software peers. Want to see exactly how those ingredients are combined into that valuation call? Result: Fair Value of $15.67 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this depends on Amplitude turning its AI products into real revenue, while also keeping rising data and infrastructure costs from putting further pressure on margins. Find out about the key risks to this Amplitude narrative.  Build Your Own Amplitude Narrative If you see the data differently, or prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a personalized Amplitude story in minutes by starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Amplitude research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? Do not stop with one stock when the market is full of opportunities. Use the tools at hand to spot ideas that match what you care about most.  Pinpoint potential bargains by checking out these 884 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that line up with your expectations on cash flows and price. Spot the future of automation and data by scanning these 26 AI penny stocks that are already attracting attention for their use of artificial intelligence. Strengthen your income focus by reviewing these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that aim to deliver yields above 3% along with solid underlying businesses.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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