By Nate Wolf
Fair Isaac and Equifax have often been targets of the Trump administration's ire, but they might benefit from the president's push to ease housing costs, one analyst says.
President Donald Trump said in a social media post Wednesday that he plans to ban institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes. Shares of single-family rental companies and home builders tumbled, while mortgage brokers surged on the idea that a "family-only" housing market would mean higher loan volumes.
FICO-score provider Fair Isaac and the credit bureaus barely reacted to the news. Shares of Equifax and TransUnion finished Wednesday up narrowly, while Fair Isaac slipped 1.2%. That struck Clear Street analyst Owen Lau as an opportunity for savvy investors.
"If the market believes mortgage volume will increase, it should also benefit these names," Lau wrote in a research note Thursday. Higher loan volume, he added, "drives incremental demand for credit reports, credit files, and FICO scores."
In the third quarter of 2025, mortgage-related activity accounted for 27% of total revenue at Fair Isaac and 21% at Equifax. It represents a smaller chunk of TransUnion's business. Clear Street estimates that a 10% jump in mortgage origination revenue in 2026 would boost adjusted per-share earnings by 5% for Fair Isaac and Equifax and 3% for TransUnion.
The muted responses to Trump's post may be due to the administration's hardline approach to the credit-scoring ecosystem, Lau suspected. Bill Pulte, the director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, has repeatedly expressed his displeasure with price increases by Fair Isaac and the credit bureaus.
There's also the not-insignificant matter of whether Trump's policies can actually reduce housing costs and spur homebuying activity. Clear Street says the administration plans to increase affordability by slashing mortgage rates and tempering housing prices, but those aren't simple goals.
Trump's next Federal Reserve chair won't be able to cut rates by himself, and mortgage rates don't hinge on the federal-funds rate anyway. On the pricing side, institutional investors with portfolios of 1,000 or more homes comprise just 2% of investor-owned single-family homes, according to real estate data platform BatchData.
Still, Lau thinks Trump's post on Wednesday could presage more aggressive actions in the months to come.
"Policymakers may expand their focus to include institutional ownership within the multifamily segment, where industry estimates suggest ownership levels reach mid-double-digit percentages in certain metropolitan areas," he wrote.
Clear Street reiterated Buy ratings for TransUnion and Fair Isaac stocks and a Hold rating for Equifax.
Write to Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 08, 2026 10:02 ET (15:02 GMT)
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