Inflation 'Uncomfortably High' in 2025 H2, Australian Central Bank to Hold Cash Rate, ANZ Research Says

MT Newswires Live01-07

Inflation was "uncomfortably high" in the second half of 2025, but the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hold the cash rate at 3.6% at its Monetary Policy Board meeting in February, ANZ Research said in a Wednesday note.

However, the analysts expect the board to explicitly discuss a rate hike. Recent signs of cooling in the housing market could also lead the board to conclude that the current monetary policy settings are slightly restrictive.

Australia's consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.4% in the 12 months to November 2025, easing from a 3.8% increase in the year to October 2025, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Trimmed mean inflation was 3.2% in the 12 months to November 2025.

Inflation pressures are expected to ease as 2026 progresses, per the note.

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