Trump torpor: What explains markets’ muted response to Venezuela and Greenland?

cityam01-07

Trump has said he 'needs' Greenland in the wake of his raid on Venezuela It is understandable that of the dozens of 2026 market outlook papers published by banks and analysts last month, not one ...

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But with the notable exceptions of a few easily explained big movers, at a macro level, the reaction has been muted. If anything the risk-on mood that dominated 2025 has only accelerated into the New Year.Stay ahead with our three daily briefings delivering all the key market moves, top business and political stories, and incisive analysis straight to your inbox.One exception was the onset of the Iraq War, which caused US equities to rally 8.4 per cent over the month after Bush’s military action was confirmed. In that instance, the single figure gains only recovered weeks of losses imposed by the p","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"cityam.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"DJIA":"Global X Dow 30 Covered Call ETF"},"translate_title":"特朗普麻木：如何解释市场对委内瑞拉和格陵兰岛的反应？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DJIA":1},"content_text":"Trump has said he 'needs' Greenland in the wake of his raid on Venezuela It is understandable that of the dozens of 2026 market outlook papers published by banks and analysts last month, not one predicted that Venezuela’s autocratic leader, Nicolas Maduro, would be captured in a historic overnight raid just three days into the New Year.Even more forgivable, is the fact none foresaw the rapid escalation of Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland, a move that his European allies have been swift to rebuke, and which the Danish Prime Minister has warned would lead to the break-up of Nato.And yet, less than a week into 2026, that is where we are. Since Saturday’s astonishing assault on Caracas and the subsequent crescendo of expansionist rhetoric, international affairs commentators have talked breathlessly of ‘spheres of influence’ and Trump’s desire for hegemony over what he sees as the US’s realm. We are at the juncture – they have tended to add – of a shift from a rules-based world to a ‘multipolar’ one in which the world’s great powers have licence to carve up the map as they see fit, treading roughshod over decades of post-war consensus.\n\nOne might expect the events of this week might also cause market participants to dial down their risk appetite, even if only momentarily. But with the notable exceptions of a few easily explained big movers, at a macro level, the reaction has been muted. If anything the risk-on mood that dominated 2025 has only accelerated into the New Year.\n\n\n\n\n\n\nNews Updates\nStay ahead with our three daily briefings delivering all the key market moves, top business and political stories, and incisive analysis straight to your inbox.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nAll-time highs abound across major blue-chip indexes, from the S&P 500 and Nikkei to the FTSE 100, and from Frankfurt’s Dax to Paris’s Cac. And while gold may have climbed sharply, sovereign debt markets – the other traditional port of call for waiting out moments of geopolitical uncertainty – barely budged.Even oil futures – representing bets on oil delivered later this month – behaved largely as if the US foray into Venezuela never happened.Keir Starmer has said he “shed no tears” over the toppling of the autocratic Nicolas MaduroThe financial history of geopolitical flashpointsSuch apathy is a historical aberration. Four years ago, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent European equities down roughly four per cent. Further back, and 2001’s 9/11 terrorist attacks sparked a famously brutal rout. In what was one of the largest single session sell-offs in US stock market history the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell north of seven per cent when trading reopened a week after the attack. After Pearl Harbor, in 1941, the DJIA fell 3.5 per cent.\n\nOne exception was the onset of the Iraq War, which caused US equities to rally 8.4 per cent over the month after Bush’s military action was confirmed. In that instance, the single figure gains only recovered weeks of losses imposed by the period of uncertainty before George Bush’s eventual declaration of war.But generally, a sudden shift in the geopolitical sands causes – even if only temporarily – a consolidation as old as time: bonds and cash up, stocks down.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2601841874","isCrawlerRequest":true}