Will Reaffirmed AI Optics Demand and Supply Constraints Change Coherent's (COHR) Capacity-Driven Narrative?

Simply Wall St.01-06

In late December 2025, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Securities reaffirmed their views on Coherent while emphasizing stronger demand for the company’s optical transceivers and components tied to ...

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This renewed focus on Coherent’s role in supplying critical optics for AI datacenters underscores how capacity, not just technology, is becoming a key competitive differentiator.  We’ll now examine how analysts’ emphasis on AI-driven demand for Coherent’s optical components may influence the company’s existing investment narrative.  The latest GPUs need a type of rare earth metal called Neodymium and there are only 38 companies in the world exploring or producing it. Find the list for free.AdvertisementCoherent Investment Narrative RecapTo own Coherent, you need to believe that its optics and materials can remain central to AI data infrastructure while coping with cyclical industrial demand and heavy investment needs. The latest analyst comments reinforce AI driven demand for optical transceivers as the key near term catalyst, but they do not materially change the main risk around margin pressure from competition and capital intensity. The recent launch of Coherent’s next generation 300 mm silicon carbide platform for AI datacenters ties directly into this AI infrastructure theme. It adds another potential growth leg alongside optical transceivers, while also increasing execution risk around large capital projects and the timing of any margin benefits. Yet investors should be aware that heavy ongoing manufacturing investment could become a double edged sword if returns are slower than expected and... Read the full narrative on Coherent (it's free!)Coherent's narrative projects $7.7 billion revenue and $732.0 million earnings by 2028.Uncover how Coherent's forecasts yield a $178.47 fair value, a 8% downside to its current price.Exploring Other PerspectivesCOHR 1-Year Stock Price Chart Five fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community range from US$53.70 to US$178.47, underlining just how far apart individual views can be. You can weigh these against the current focus on AI related optics demand and consider what that might mean for Coherent’s future earnings resilience.Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Coherent - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!Build Your Own Coherent NarrativeDisagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.A great starting point for your Coherent research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.Our free Coherent research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Coherent's overall financial health at a glance.Seeking Other Investments?The market won't wait. These fast-moving stocks are hot now. Grab the list before they run:The best AI stocks today may lie beyond giants like Nvidia and Microsoft. Find the next big opportunity with these 25 smaller AI-focused companies with strong growth potential through early-stage innovation in machine learning, automation, and data intelligence that could fund your retirement.These 14 companies survived and thrived after COVID and have the right ingredients to survive Trump's tariffs. Discover why before your portfolio feels the trade war pinch.The end of cancer? These 29 emerging AI stocks are developing tech that will allow early identification of life changing diseases like cancer and Alzheimer's.  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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