Meteorologists predict nationwide warm spell through Jan. 20
Natgas futures risk sliding to $3 without weather boost, Ritterbusch says
JP Morgan expects US gas strength in 2026 on rising LNG feedgas demand
By Anmol Choubey
Jan 5 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures dropped more than 5% on Monday, marking a fourth consecutive session of losses pressured by forecasts for warmer weather nationwide and lower demand projections in the coming weeks.
Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded 20.8 cents lower, or 5.7%, at $3.41 per million British thermal units as of 08:51 AM ET.
"This market is dropping into fresh new low territory this morning because weekend updates to the short-term temperature views failed to offer a significant change within the short-term forecasts," consultancy Ritterbusch & Associates said in a note.
Meteorologists predict warmer-than-average temperatures across the nation through Jan. 20, with Heating Degree Days expected to decline from 369 on Friday to 367 on Monday, remaining way below the 30-year normal level of 458. HDDs are a metric for gauging energy demand for heating buildings.
"Consequently, downside price risk in nearby futures now extends to the $3.00 area, achievement of such could be attained this week unless some weather support is forthcoming," Ritterbusch & Associates added.
Financial firm LSEG forecasted average gas demand, including exports, in the U.S. Lower 48 states would rise marginally from 133.0 bcfd this week to 134.2 bcfd next week. The projection for this week is lower than Friday's estimate, while next week's outlook is slightly higher.
LSEG said average natural gas output in the lower 48 U.S. states climbed to 109.2 billion cubic feet per day in January, still below December's monthly record of 109.9 bcfd.
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export facilities climbed to 18.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, exceeding December's record of 18.4 bcfd.
"We still believe our positive thesis will remain intact for 2026 largely on the back of rising feedgas demand for LNG, albeit in the later innings of our call as we do see some potential headwinds in the supply-demand picture for 2027," JP Morgan said in a note.
Elsewhere, wholesale gas prices in Europe and Britain fell on Monday morning after hitting a one-month high in the previous session, with traders taking some profit and as forecasts of less cold and windy weather eased gas demand. NG/EU
Meanwhile, Norwegian energy group Equinor EQNR.OL said on Friday it had filed a civil suit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia challenging a U.S. Department of the Interior order to suspend its Empire Wind project.
Week ended Dec 26 Actual | Week ended Dec 19 Actual | Year ago Dec 26 | Five-year average Dec 26 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -38 | -166 | -112 | -120 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,375 | 3,413 | 3,430 | 3,317 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 1.6% | -0.7% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2020-2024) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.41 | 3.69 | - | - | - |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 9.45 | 9.84 | - | - | - |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 9.7 | 9.61 | - | - | - |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 367 | 369 | 520 | 442 | 458 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 371 | 373 | 520 | 445 | 461 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.9 | 109.3 | 109.4 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 10.6 | 9.9 | 8.9 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | N/A | N/A |
Total U.S. Supply | 120.5 | 119.3 | 118.4 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.7 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.6 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.8 | 19.0 | 18.5 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Commercial | 16.9 | 15.0 | 15.5 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Residential | 28.1 | 24.4 | 25.6 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.0 | 32.1 | 31.5 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Industrial | 25.4 | 24.9 | 25.3 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | N/A | N/A |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | N/A | N/A |
Total U.S. Consumption | 109.8 | 104.8 | 106.4 | N/A | N/A |
Total U.S. Demand | 138.2 | 133.0 | 134.2 | N/A | N/A |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | - | 99 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | - | 98 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | - | 102 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jan 09 | Week ended Jan 02 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 8 | 14 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
38 | 36 | 42 | 41 | 38 | |
Coal | 21 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 21 | 21 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2020-2024) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | - | 4.00 | - | - | - |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | - | 4.28 | - | - | - |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | - | 2.98 | - | - | - |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | - | 3.67 | - | - | - |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | - | 3.08 | - | - | - |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | - | 18.9 | - | - | - |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | - | 3.63 | - | - | - |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | - | 0.39 | - | - | - |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | - | 2.53 | - | - | - |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | - | 190 | - | - | - |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 56.05 | 62.91 | - | - | - |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 18.19 | 26.58 | - | - | - |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 27.44 | 26.67 | - | --- | - |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 32.19 | 34.38 | - | - | - |
(Reporting by Anmol Choubey in BengaluruEditing by Nick Zieminski)
((anmol.choubey@thomsonreuters.com; +91-9473732332;))
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