Is Rocket Lab (RKLB) Share Surge Justified By Current Valuation Metrics

Simply Wall St.01-10

If you are wondering whether Rocket Lab's current share price reflects its true worth, this article walks through what the numbers actually say about value. Rocket Lab's share price recently closed at...

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Rocket Lab's share price recently closed at...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nasdaq-rklb/rocket-lab/news/is-rocket-lab-rklb-share-surge-justified-by-current-valuatio\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Rocket Lab (RKLB) Share Surge Justified By Current Valuation Metrics</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Rocket Lab (RKLB) Share Surge Justified By Current Valuation Metrics\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-10 06:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nasdaq-rklb/rocket-lab/news/is-rocket-lab-rklb-share-surge-justified-by-current-valuatio><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether Rocket Lab's current share price reflects its true worth, this article walks through what the numbers actually say about value. Rocket Lab's share price recently closed at...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nasdaq-rklb/rocket-lab/news/is-rocket-lab-rklb-share-surge-justified-by-current-valuatio\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4564","symbol_name":"太空概念","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nasdaq-rklb/rocket-lab/news/is-rocket-lab-rklb-share-surge-justified-by-current-valuatio","article_id":"2602307181","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/3021000-choice1-main-header/1585186644732"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nasdaq-rklb/rocket-lab/news/is-rocket-lab-rklb-share-surge-justified-by-current-valuatio","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602307181","pubTimestamp":1767997381,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether Rocket Lab's current share price reflects its true worth, this article walks through what the numbers actually say about value.\nRocket Lab's share price recently closed at US$83.08, with returns of 19.1% over 7 days, 55.5% over 30 days, 9.3% year to date and 203.7% over 1 year, and a very large return over 3 and 5 years.\nThese sharp moves have kept Rocket Lab on many investors' watchlists, as the stock reacts to ongoing developments around its business and...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4564":"太空概念","RKLB":"Rocket Lab USA, Inc.","BK4187":"航天航空与国防"},"translate_title":"当前估值指标证明火箭实验室(RKLB)股价飙升合理吗","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"RKLB":1.98},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Rocket Lab's current share price reflects its true worth, this article walks through what the numbers actually say about value. Rocket Lab's share price recently closed at US$83.08, with returns of 19.1% over 7 days, 55.5% over 30 days, 9.3% year to date and 203.7% over 1 year, and a very large return over 3 and 5 years. These sharp moves have kept Rocket Lab on many investors' watchlists, as the stock reacts to ongoing developments around its business and sector. While short term swings can create excitement or concern, the key question is whether the current price is supported by underlying fundamentals. Despite the strong share price performance, Rocket Lab currently scores 0 out of 6 on our valuation checks, as shown by its valuation score. Next, we will compare different valuation approaches and then finish with a broader way to think about what \"fair value\" really means for this stock.  Rocket Lab scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Rocket Lab Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today, to arrive at an estimate of what the business might be worth per share. For Rocket Lab, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve months free cash flow is a loss of about $220.28 million. Analyst and extrapolated projections then move from an estimated free cash flow of $30.05 million in 2026 to $1,062 million in 2030, with further years beyond that also based on Simply Wall St extrapolations. When all of those projected cash flows are discounted back, the DCF model suggests an intrinsic value of about $72.36 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $83.08, this implies Rocket Lab is about 14.8% overvalued on this particular cash flow model. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Rocket Lab may be overvalued by 14.8%. Discover 878 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. RKLB Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Rocket Lab. Approach 2: Rocket Lab Price vs Book For asset heavy or earlier stage businesses where earnings are not yet a steady guide, the price to book, or P/B, ratio is often a useful cross check because it compares what you pay in the market to the accounting value of net assets on the balance sheet. In general, higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/B multiple, while lower growth or higher uncertainty usually support a lower, more conservative range. So it helps to compare a stock’s P/B with relevant benchmarks rather than looking at the number in isolation. Rocket Lab currently trades on a P/B of 34.64x. This is well above the wider Aerospace & Defense industry average of about 4.00x and also above the peer group average of 9.76x. Simply Wall St’s “Fair Ratio” is a proprietary estimate of what a suitable P/B might be, based on factors like earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and company specific risks. Because it blends these inputs into one number, it gives you a more tailored anchor than simple industry or peer comparisons, which may not fully reflect Rocket Lab’s profile. Result: OVERVALUED NasdaqCM:RKLB P/B Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/B ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1443 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Rocket Lab Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to think about value. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you attach your own story about Rocket Lab to the numbers by linking your assumptions for future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast and fair value, then comparing that fair value with today’s price. Because these Narratives sit on the Community page and update as new news or earnings arrive, you can see in one place how a very optimistic view might support a fair value around US$98 per share while a more cautious view might sit closer to US$20. This gives you a clear, easy framework for when you might consider buying, holding or selling based on the story you believe in most. For Rocket Lab however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Rocket Lab Narratives: Each one ties a clear story to the same stock, but they land in very different places on value and risk. Your job is simply to decide which story feels closer to how you see the business. 🐂 Rocket Lab Bull Case Fair value: about US$97.83 per share Premium or discount vs last close: the last close of US$83.08 sits about 15.1% below this fair value estimate Assumed annual revenue growth: 55%  Frames Rocket Lab as a company aiming to be deeply integrated across the US$800b space \"backbone\", with launch plus space systems working together to serve a much larger customer base. Builds a path to about US$6b in revenue by 2035 on the back of Neutron, higher launch cadence and an expanding, higher margin Space Systems segment, while calling out the need to reach positive net margins. Sees competition, including SpaceX, as intense but not necessarily zero sum, arguing that multiple successful operators can grow alongside a larger global space economy.  🐻 Rocket Lab Bear Case Fair value: about US$68.75 per share Premium or discount vs last close: the last close of US$83.08 sits about 20.8% above this fair value estimate Assumed annual revenue growth: 36.36%  Focuses on heavy Neutron spending, vertical integration and acquisitions as factors that could keep free cash flow under pressure and make the path to steady profitability harder. Highlights reliance on large government and defense contracts, potential launch schedule shifts and competition from well funded peers as key risks for margins and growth targets. Notes that consensus fair value sits below the current price, so to agree with this view you would need to be comfortable with high expected revenue growth, a higher P/E than the broader Aerospace & Defense industry and ongoing execution risks.  Putting it together, you have one narrative that sees today’s price as below long run potential and another that sees it as above a more restrained fair value. The most useful step you can take is to decide which assumptions feel reasonable, then track how real world news lines up with the story you back. Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives Do you think there's more to the story for Rocket Lab? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NasdaqCM:RKLB 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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