A Look At Olin (OLN) Valuation After Cutting Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance

Simply Wall St.01-11

Olin (OLN) cut its Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook to about US$67 million, down from a prior range of US$110 million to US$130 million, citing maintenance, downtime at Freeport, Texas, and softer ...

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The 1-year total shareholder return decline of 20.26% and 3-year total shareholder return...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU1169590202.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX)  U.S. SELECT EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1169589451.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX)  U.S. SELECT EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4090":"商品化工","OLN":"欧林"},"translate_title":"下调2025年第四季度调整后EBITDA指引后Olin(OLN)估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"OLN":1.5},"content_text":"Olin (OLN) cut its Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA outlook to about US$67 million, down from a prior range of US$110 million to US$130 million, citing maintenance, downtime at Freeport, Texas, and softer pipeline chlorine demand. See our latest analysis for Olin. Even with the reduced Q4 2025 outlook, the stock has been volatile, with a 1-day share price return of 5.76% and a 7-day share price return of 10.72%. The 1-year total shareholder return decline of 20.26% and 3-year total shareholder return decline of 54.88% point to pressure over a longer horizon, suggesting recent momentum is building off a weaker multi year base. If you are reassessing your materials exposure after Olin's guidance update, it could be a useful moment to broaden your search and check out fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With Olin trading at US$23.86 and its own intrinsic value estimate implying a roughly 75% discount, recent price swings raise a key question for you: is this genuine mispricing or is the market already accounting for future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 3.5% Undervalued With Olin's fair value in the most followed narrative sitting just above the last close, the current price leaves only a modest valuation gap to examine.  Structural cost reduction initiatives (Beyond250 and Epoxy cost optimization) are expected to deliver significant operational savings, yielding an estimated $70 to $90 million run-rate benefit by the end of 2025 and additional structural cost reductions from the Stade, Germany facility in 2026; this should improve net margins and support earnings quality.  Read the complete narrative. Want to understand what earnings path needs to line up for that fair value? Revenue trends, margin rebuild and the future P/E assumptions are doing most of the work. Curious how tightly those pieces have to fit for this pricing gap to make sense? Result: Fair Value of $24.73 (ABOUT RIGHT) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this depends on avoiding prolonged global overcapacity in core chemicals and a deeper profit squeeze in Winchester that could limit any earnings rebuild. Find out about the key risks to this Olin narrative. Another Angle On Valuation The SWS DCF model paints a very different picture compared with the modest 3.5% undervaluation in the consensus narrative. At US$23.86, Olin screens as trading about 75% below an estimated fair value of US$96.81, which suggests a wide gap between price and long term earnings assumptions. Is that a genuine opportunity, or a sign that the model is leaning too heavily on optimistic profit growth? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. OLN Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Olin Narrative If you want to stress test these assumptions yourself, you can work straight off the same data, frame your own view and then Do it your way in just a few minutes. A great starting point for your Olin research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you are ready to widen your watchlist beyond Olin, the right screeners can help you spot focused opportunities instead of sifting through endless tickers alone.  Target potential mispricing by reviewing these 882 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that align with your view on cash flow strength and price discipline. Explore the AI theme thoughtfully by scanning these 28 AI penny stocks that connect real business models with artificial intelligence applications. Strengthen your income shortlist by filtering for these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that match your preferred balance between yield and fundamentals.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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