Expectations for lower petrol prices in the future will likely be viewed as positive news by the Australian central bank's monetary policy board, which remains vigilant to signs of persistent inflation, Jarden said in a note on Thursday.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was removed by the US administration, which led to a rise in uncertainty around the outlook for the oil market. Oil futures, volatility indices, and measures of uncertainty have moved sideways.
Venezuela's oil reserves of 303 billion barrels are the largest in the world. However, the country's production is only 800,000 barrels of oil per day to 1.1 million barrels of oil per day, only around 1% of global production. Restoring production to earlier levels of over 3 million barrels of oil per day would require significant investment in infrastructure, which could span over more than a decade.
The US Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts an oversupply in global liquids markets to persist through 2026, and that Brent crude will average $52 per barrel in the year.
Australia is a minor oil producer, but petrol prices matter for the consumer price index (CPI) and consumer confidence. Headline CPI is around 30% correlated to oil prices with around a three-quarter lag, and there is a strong inverse relationship between consumer sentiment and domestic petrol prices.
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