Is It Time To Reassess BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Its Strong Recent Share Price Run

Simply Wall St.01-09

Investors may be wondering if BHP Group at around A$47.34 is offering good value right now, or if the recent run makes it look fully priced. The stock has returned 4.1% over the last 7 days, 6.9% over...

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The stock has returned 4.1% over the last 7 days, 6.9% over...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-time-to-reassess-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-its-strong-rec\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Time To Reassess BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Its Strong Recent Share Price Run</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Time To Reassess BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Its Strong Recent Share Price Run\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-09 09:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-time-to-reassess-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-its-strong-rec><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors may be wondering if BHP Group at around A$47.34 is offering good value right now, or if the recent run makes it look fully priced. The stock has returned 4.1% over the last 7 days, 6.9% over...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-time-to-reassess-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-its-strong-rec\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4588","symbol_name":"碎股","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-time-to-reassess-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-its-strong-rec","article_id":"2602342282","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/256654-main-header/1585186732463"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-time-to-reassess-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-its-strong-rec","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602342282","pubTimestamp":1767921782,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Investors may be wondering if BHP Group at around A$47.34 is offering good value right now, or if the recent run makes it look fully priced.\nThe stock has returned 4.1% over the last 7 days, 6.9% over 30 days, 3.5% year to date and 25.7% over 1 year, with a 63.8% return over 5 years and 11.6% over 3 years. These figures may affect how you think about its current price.\nRecent news around the global mining sector, commodity demand and capital allocation across large resources companies has...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4588":"碎股","BK4168":"多种金属与采矿","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK7507":"资源股","LU0300736492.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0300736062.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","BK7511":"ESG概念","BHP":"必和必拓公司","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","BHP.AU":"BHP GROUP LTD"},"translate_title":"必和必拓集团(ASX：BHP)近期股价强劲上涨后，是时候重新评估其股价了吗","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BHP.AU":1.5,"BHP":1.5,"DCF":1},"content_text":"Investors may be wondering if BHP Group at around A$47.34 is offering good value right now, or if the recent run makes it look fully priced. The stock has returned 4.1% over the last 7 days, 6.9% over 30 days, 3.5% year to date and 25.7% over 1 year, with a 63.8% return over 5 years and 11.6% over 3 years. These figures may affect how you think about its current price. Recent news around the global mining sector, commodity demand and capital allocation across large resources companies has put extra attention on how miners like BHP Group are priced. These themes help frame whether the share price moves are grounded in shifting fundamentals or changing risk appetite. BHP Group currently has a valuation score of 3/6, reflecting where it screens as undervalued on several checks. Next, we will compare different valuation methods before finishing with a more holistic way to think about what the stock could be worth.  Find out why BHP Group's 25.7% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: BHP Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business could be worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today using a required rate of return. It focuses on the cash the company can generate for shareholders rather than accounting earnings. For BHP Group, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is $10.35b. Analysts provide explicit forecasts for several years, and Simply Wall St then extrapolates beyond that, with projected free cash flow of $10.23b in 2030. The supplied projections for 2026 through 2035 show annual free cash flow remaining in the multi billion dollar range throughout the period. Bringing all those projected cash flows back to today, the DCF estimate of fair value is A$46.50 per share, compared with the current share price of about A$47.34. That implies the stock screens as roughly 1.8% overvalued on this model. This is a very small gap and well within normal valuation noise. Result: ABOUT RIGHT BHP Group is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act. BHP Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for BHP Group. Approach 2: BHP Group Price vs Earnings For a profitable company like BHP Group, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about value, because it links what you pay for each share directly to the earnings that business is currently generating. What counts as a reasonable P/E will usually reflect what the market expects for earnings growth and how risky those earnings appear. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while lower growth expectations or higher risk can point to a lower P/E being more appropriate. BHP Group is trading on a P/E of 17.85x, compared with a Metals and Mining industry average P/E of 24.01x and a peer group average of 21.67x. Simply Wall St also calculates a proprietary “Fair Ratio” of 30.44x for BHP Group. This Fair Ratio is designed to be more tailored than simple peer or industry comparisons, as it factors in elements such as earnings growth, risk profile, profit margins, industry, and market capitalisation. When set against this Fair Ratio, BHP Group’s current P/E of 17.85x appears materially lower. This indicates that the shares might be trading at a discount relative to that model. Result: UNDERVALUED ASX:BHP P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1445 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your BHP Group Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about BHP Group. They tie together your view on its copper and potash projects, legal risks, margins, and future P/E into a set of revenue, earnings, and margin forecasts that roll up into a fair value. All of this sits within an easy tool on Simply Wall St's Community page that lets you compare that fair value to the current price, see how it differs from other users, and watch it update as new news or earnings come in. One investor might focus on the more optimistic A$46.55 price target and higher earnings assumptions, while another anchors on the cautious A$35.82 target and lower earnings expectations, each with a clear, quantified story behind their numbers. Do you think there's more to the story for BHP Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! ASX:BHP Earnings & Revenue History as at Jan 2026  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if BHP Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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