Rio, BHP Shares Discounting Average Iron Ore Price of $100 Per Tonne for 2026, Says Jefferies

MT Newswires Live01-09

Shares of Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO), BHP (ASX:BHP), and Vale are pricing in a discounted iron ore price of $100 per tonne on average for 2026, according to a Friday Jefferies note.

According to Jefferies' analysis, the $100 per tonne value is in line with its estimate for 2026.

The meaningful rise in the implied iron ore price over the past two years has primarily been driven by growth in market capitalizations

Shares of BHP, Rio, and Vale have outperformed the benchmark iron ore price by about 40% on average since the start of 2025, inflating enterprise values and, in turn, demanding a higher implied iron ore price to generate earnings that can achieve "normalized" enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization multiples.

Jefferies kept a hold rating on Rio Tinto and BHP with price targets of AU$143 and AU$45, respectively.

Shares of Rio Tinto fell almost 6% and shares of BHP rose past 1% in recent Friday trade.

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