EXCLUSIVE: 'Big Short' Investor Danny Moses: Ignore Prediction Markets At Your Own Risk

Benzinga_recent_news01-09

For years, prediction markets lived on the fringes of finance — interesting, occasionally accurate, but easy for investors to dismiss. Danny Moses says that complacency is becoming a mistake in 2026. ...

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Danny Moses says that complacency is becoming a mistake in 2026. ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/01/49812319/exclusive-big-short-investor-danny-moses-ignore-prediction-markets-at-your-own-risk\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"CME","symbol_name":"芝加哥商品交易所","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/01/49812319/exclusive-big-short-investor-danny-moses-ignore-prediction-markets-at-your-own-risk","article_id":"2602374488","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/01/09/Moses-Prediction.png?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/01/49812319/exclusive-big-short-investor-danny-moses-ignore-prediction-markets-at-your-own-risk","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2602374488","pubTimestamp":1767968880,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"'Big Short' investor Danny Moses says prediction markets have liquidity increasing and institutional validation growing — investors should pay attention.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"CME":"芝加哥商品交易所","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU1116320901.HKD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (HKD) INC","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999004303.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Global Opportunities SGD","LU0477156953.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES US VALUE EQUITY \"RE\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU0314106906.USD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU2506951875.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) ACC","IE00B42XCP33.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) INC","BK4566":"资本集团","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU1732800096.USD":"摩根大通环球收益基金A (irc)","LU2089283258.USD":"安联环球可持续基金Cl AM Dis","LU2506951958.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU1153585028.USD":"BGF GLOBAL LONG-HORIZON EQUITY  \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1732799900.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (irc) SGD-H","LU0742537680.HKD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A \" (HKD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","LU2023250843.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AT Acc H2-SGD","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU2506952170.USD":"BNP PARIBAS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL LOW VOL EQUITY \"CRH\" (USDHDG) INC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1481011671.HKD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKDHDG) INC","LU0265550359.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU1481011911.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USDHDG) INC","LU2237957902.USD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (USD) ACC","LU1116320737.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A6\" (USD) INC","LU0265550946.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL ENHANCED EQUITY YIELD \"A5\" (USD) INC","LU1718418525.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Select Equity A (acc) SGD","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC","LU0912757837.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (mth) SGD-H","LU2237957811.SGD":"NIKKO AM GLOBAL EQUITY \"F\" (SGD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0731783394.SGD":"Fidelity Global Dividend A-MINCOME(G)-SGD","ICE":"洲际交易所","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A Acc","LU2347655156.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (icdiv) SGD-H","IE00BVYPNW00.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0795875086.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Income A (div) SGD","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU0130517989.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES US VALUE EQUITY \"R\" INC","LU0154245756.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US MID CAP \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU1228905037.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","LU0772969993.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"独家：“大空头”投资者丹尼·摩西：忽视预测市场风险自担","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CME":1,"ICE":1},"content_text":"For years, prediction markets lived on the fringes of finance — interesting, occasionally accurate, but easy for investors to dismiss. Danny Moses says that complacency is becoming a mistake in 2026. \nIn an exclusive interview with Benzinga, Moses was blunt: prediction markets are no longer noise. As liquidity improves, he says they're turning into a real signal — one investors ignore at their own risk.\n       • CME Group stock is trading in a tight range. What’s ahead for CME stock?\nTell-tale signs include:\nMoses says the biggest change is structural. \"I think we will see liquidity continue to increase in prediction markets,\" he said, a prerequisite for anything to move from curiosity to tradable asset.\nEvent contracts, in his view, are simply another way to express conviction. \"Using event contracts to express an opinion is no different than trying to find a stock to express the same theme,\" Moses said.\nThat mindset shift — from novelty to utility — is what turns markets into markets.\nThe second sign is validation from the incumbents.\nMoses pointed to Intercontinental Exchange Inc (NYSE:ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange, investing billions into prediction market infrastructure. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are raising capital at multi-billion-dollar valuations. And the CME Group Inc (NASDAQ:CME) — the world's largest commodity exchange — is partnering with FanDuel to build prediction markets.\nThat's not experimentation. That's endorsement.\nThe final signal is subtle but powerful: how investors consume information.\n\"I glance through event contracts now like I do the FT [Financial Times] or the WSJ [Wall Street Journal] each day,\" Moses said, using them as a real-time check on what markets might be missing.\nAs liquidity improves, he expects that habit to spread — and trading to follow.\nIn 2026, prediction markets aren't just predicting outcomes.\nThey're becoming part of how markets think.\nPhotos: Danny Moses, courtesy D. Moses; Prediction courtesy of Shutterstock\nThis content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2602374488","isCrawlerRequest":true}