Assessing Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Valuation After Grasberg Lawsuits, Production Recovery And Insider Share Purchases

Simply Wall St.01-12

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) is back in the spotlight as investors weigh ongoing class action lawsuits over safety disclosures at its Grasberg Block Cave mine, alongside reports of production recovery and ...

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See our latest analysis for Freeport-McMoRan. The recent legal headlines sit alongside strong share price momentum, with a 30 day share price return of 19.31% and 90 day share price return of 34.69%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 45.63% suggests that, for now, investors are rewarding perceived upside despite the added risk questions. If you are curious about how other materials names with insider conviction are trading, this could be a good moment to broaden your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With the stock at $56.53 and an intrinsic value estimate implying a 48.65% discount, yet trading slightly above the average analyst target, the key question is simple: are you looking at a mispriced copper heavyweight or a market already baking in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 16.5% Overvalued With Freeport-McMoRan last closing at $56.53 against a narrative fair value of $48.52, the current price sits meaningfully above that reference point, which puts more focus on the assumptions doing the heavy lifting in this story. Freeport's disciplined capital allocation, with a commitment to returning 50% of excess cash flow via dividends/buybacks while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet, improves earnings per share and gives flexibility to fund organic growth and weather copper price volatility, further supporting long-term shareholder value. Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of revenue climb, margin uplift, and future earnings multiple are baked into that fair value gap? The narrative leans heavily on higher profitability and a richer earnings valuation than the wider US Metals and Mining group. If you want to see exactly how those moving parts stack up over the next few years, the full storyline lays out the numbers behind that $48.52 figure. Result: Fair Value of $48.52 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, the story can quickly change if Grasberg related disruptions drag on, or if policy shifts in Indonesia and key markets squeeze margins and long term project economics. Find out about the key risks to this Freeport-McMoRan narrative. Another View: Earnings Multiple Tells A Different Story Our SWS DCF model points to a fair value of about $110.09 per share, which frames the current $56.53 price as materially undervalued. That sits in real tension with the earlier $48.52 fair value and analyst targets. Which set of assumptions do you find more believable? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. FCX Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Freeport-McMoRan for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 881 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Freeport-McMoRan Narrative If parts of this analysis do not quite fit your view, or you would rather test the assumptions yourself, you can pull the data, stress test the key drivers, and shape a version that reflects your own thesis in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Freeport-McMoRan research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? You have seen how one stock story can play out, so do not stop here when the wider market is full of very different setups and risk return profiles.  Spot potential value by scanning these 881 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that currently trade below their estimated cash flow based fair values. Tap into fast changing growth themes with these 28 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence trends across different industries. Lock in income ideas by reviewing these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that offer yields above 3% and could complement more growth focused holdings.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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