A Look At Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) Valuation After AI Fueled Semiconductor Rally And Fed Policy Optimism

Simply Wall St.01-10

Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) is back on investors’ radar after a 4.4% share move, which came alongside a broader semiconductor rally linked to artificial intelligence enthusiasm at CES and changing...

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See our latest analysis for Monolithic Power Systems. That 4.4% jump sits within a mixed but generally positive trend, with a 7 day share price return of 2.42%, a 90 day share price return of 6.03% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 63.55%. This suggests momentum has been building as AI focused enthusiasm and hopes for easier Federal Reserve policy feed into sentiment, even as recent insider sales were executed under pre arranged trading plans. If the recent AI driven move in semiconductors has your attention, this could be a good moment to scan high growth tech and AI stocks for potential next ideas to research. With Monolithic Power Systems trading around $958.97 and sitting roughly 24% below the average analyst price target of $1,196.07, the key question is whether that gap signals opportunity or if expectations already reflect future growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 19.8% Undervalued With Monolithic Power Systems closing at US$958.97 against a narrative fair value of about US$1,196, the central question is whether the implied long term earnings path justifies that gap.  MPS has expanded its manufacturing and supply chain capacity to $4 billion in annual revenue, with significant diversification outside China, positioning it to gain share, secure supply for customers in a geopolitically sensitive environment, and take advantage of rising semiconductor content in end devices. All of these factors may support higher revenues and margins in future years.  Read the complete narrative. Want to see what kind of revenue mix, margin profile, and future P/E multiple this narrative leans on to reach that fair value? The underlying assumptions around AI data centers, enterprise demand, and long term earnings power are all laid out, but not always where you might expect them. Result: Fair Value of $1,196.07 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this narrative can be challenged if AI and Enterprise Data spending slows, or if rising costs and supply chain pressures weigh more heavily on margins. Find out about the key risks to this Monolithic Power Systems narrative. Another View: What If The Cash Flows Tell A Different Story? While the fair value narrative points to Monolithic Power Systems being about 19.8% undervalued, our DCF model lands in a very different place. On that cash flow view, the shares at US$958.97 sit above an estimate of fair value of US$407.57, which flags possible valuation risk rather than a clear cushion. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. MPWR Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Monolithic Power Systems for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 879 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Monolithic Power Systems Narrative If you are not fully aligned with this view, or prefer to work from the raw assumptions yourself, you can build a custom thesis, stress test different scenarios, and see how your own fair value stacks up in just a few minutes with Do it your way A great starting point for your Monolithic Power Systems research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Ready for more stock ideas to research? If Monolithic Power Systems has sharpened your interest, do not stop here. Widen your hunt with focused screens that can surface fresh opportunities before others notice.  Target potential mispricings by scanning these 879 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may not fully reflect their underlying cash flows in current market expectations. Zero in on AI driven themes by checking out these 28 AI penny stocks riding the growth of data, automation and machine learning adoption. Position your portfolio for income by researching these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that offer yields above 3% and may appeal if you want regular cash returns.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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