Is It Too Late To Reassess Liquidia (LQDA) After Its Sharp Share Price Surge?

Simply Wall St.01-10

If you are wondering whether Liquidia's share price still offers value after a strong run, the starting point is understanding how its current market price lines up with different ways of estimating ...

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Liquidia's stock closed at US$35.86, with returns of 14.2% over the past week, 9.7% over the past month and 14.2% year to date, while the 1 year return sits at 194.2% and the 3 year return is very large. Recent attention on Liquidia has centered on its position in pharmaceuticals and biotech, with investors closely following company specific updates that may affect its prospects. These developments provide important context for the sharp moves in the share price and help frame the discussion around what that price might imply. On our 6 point valuation checklist, Liquidia scores a 2 out of 6 for being undervalued. Next, we look at what different valuation methods say about the stock's pricing today, and then finish with a way to think about valuation that goes beyond a single score or model.  Liquidia scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Liquidia Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company might be worth today by taking projected future cash flows and discounting them back to a present value. It is essentially asking what those future dollars are worth in today’s terms. For Liquidia, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is a loss of US$115.86 million, so the valuation leans heavily on future projections rather than recent cash generation. Analysts provide detailed forecasts out to 2028, and beyond that the cash flows through 2035 are extrapolated by Simply Wall St, reaching a projected free cash flow of US$578.37 million in 2030. When all of these projected cash flows are discounted back, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of US$195.23 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$35.86, this model points to an implied 81.6% discount, which suggests the stock is significantly undervalued on these assumptions. Result: UNDERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Liquidia is undervalued by 81.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 879 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows. LQDA Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Liquidia. Approach 2: Liquidia Price vs Sales For companies that are not yet consistently profitable, the P/S ratio is often more useful than P/E because it compares the share price with revenue rather than earnings, which can still be negative or volatile during a build out phase. What investors usually pay for each dollar of sales depends a lot on growth expectations and risk. Higher expected growth and lower perceived risk can support a higher P/S, while slower growth or higher uncertainty tend to justify a lower multiple. Liquidia currently trades on a P/S of 45.07x. That is well above the Pharmaceuticals industry average P/S of 4.30x and also above the peer average of 9.53x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Liquidia is 14.45x, which is its proprietary estimate of what a more typical P/S might be given factors such as the company’s growth profile, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks. The Fair Ratio aims to be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry because it adjusts for these company specific characteristics instead of assuming all firms deserve similar multiples. Compared with this Fair Ratio of 14.45x, the current P/S of 45.07x suggests Liquidia’s shares are priced above that level. Result: OVERVALUED NasdaqCM:LQDA P/S Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/S ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1444 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Liquidia Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about a company linked directly to the numbers you think are reasonable for its future revenue, earnings, margins and fair value. Instead of looking at a single model in isolation, a Narrative connects three pieces for you: the business story you believe, the financial forecast that follows from that story, and the fair value estimate that drops out of those forecasts. On Simply Wall St, millions of investors use Narratives in the Community page to quickly set or adjust their assumptions, see the implied fair value, and then compare that with the current share price to help consider whether they view a stock like Liquidia as closer to a buy, hold or sell stance. Because Narratives update automatically when new information such as news or earnings is added to the platform, your fair value view can stay aligned with the latest data rather than being a one-off spreadsheet exercise. You can also see how other investors may hold very different views on Liquidia by setting much higher or much lower fair values based on their own expectations for its future. Do you think there's more to the story for Liquidia? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NasdaqCM:LQDA 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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