Speculators increase short bets amid 27% futures drop
LSEG reports slight decrease in U.S. gas output
U.S. LNG export plants see record gas flows in January
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Monday on record flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants and forecasts for colder weather and higher heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.
Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) rose 3.1 cents, or 1.0%, to $3.200 per million British thermal units. On Friday, the contract closed at its lowest since October 17.
A 27% drop in gas futures over the past couple of weeks prompted speculators to boost their short bets in futures and options 3023651MSHT on the NYMEX to their highest since November 2024, according to the latest U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states fell to 109.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.
Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly near normal through January 27.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 135.9 bcfd this week to 149.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.7 bcfd so far in January, up from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to reach a record 19.4 bcfd on Monday, up from 19.0 bcfd on Sunday and a daily record high of 19.3 bcfd on December 4.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $10 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Jan 9 Forecast | Week ended Jan 2 Actual | Year ago Jan 9 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 9 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -90 | -119 | -227 | -146 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,166 | 3,256 | 3,152 | 3,079 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +2.8% | +1.0% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.27 | 3.17 | 3.72 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 10.22 | 9.69 | 14.67 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 9.57 | 9.56 | 14.16 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 461 | 413 | 538 | 440 | 461 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 464 | 417 | 538 | 443 | 464 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.3 | 109.6 | 109.7 | 103.5 | 98.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 10.3 | 9.5 | 9.8 | N/A | 9.6 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 119.6 | 119.1 | 119.4 | N/A | 108.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.7 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.6 | 19.1 | 18.5 | 15.1 | 12.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 15.0 | 15.9 | 19.8 | 19.1 | 17.3 |
U.S. Residential | 24.4 | 26.5 | 33.4 | 34.9 | 29.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.4 | 30.8 | 32.8 | 37.7 | 32.5 |
U.S. Industrial | 24.9 | 25.4 | 26.7 | 26.3 | 26.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 104.0 | 107.0 | 121.4 | 126.3 | 115.5 |
Total U.S. Demand | 132.3 | 135.9 | 149.7 | N/A | 137.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 99 | 99 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 100 | 101 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 103 | 104 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jan 16 | Week ended Jan 9 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 12 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 7 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
36 | 35 | 40 | 42 | 41 | |
Coal | 18 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 21 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.87 | 2.92 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 2.61 | 2.26 | 8.77 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.31 | 2.52 | 3.87 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 2.37 | 2.20 | 3.74 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.63 | 2.60 | 3.93 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 7.55 | 4.53 | 15.67 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.03 | 3.32 | 4.49 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 2.13 | -0.43 | 3.27 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.46 | 1.66 | 1.22 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 93.00 | 65.86 | 147.88 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX | 42.60 | 30.73 | 75.11 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 17.04 | 20.08 | 52.79 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 25.29 | 21.25 | 44.47 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 26.18 | 21.90 | 39.98 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Hugh Lawson)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
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