A Look At HubSpot (HUBS) Valuation As Partner Signals Point To Mixed Demand And Slower 2026 Growth

Simply Wall St.01-12

HubSpot (HUBS) is back in focus after an Oppenheimer note flagged mixed demand signals from a key partner, whose softer fourth quarter and expectation for slower 2026 growth have raised new questions ...

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See our latest analysis for HubSpot. The latest concerns around partner demand come after a sharp reset in sentiment, with HubSpot’s 90 day share price return of 17.41% decline and 1 year total shareholder return of 47.25% decline contrasting with a still positive 3 year total shareholder return of 17.69%. This suggests that momentum has faded recently, even if longer term holders remain ahead overall. If this kind of volatility has you thinking about alternatives, it could be a good moment to scan other high growth tech and AI stocks that might fit your growth watchlist. With shares well below recent highs, a value score of 5, and both intrinsic models and analyst targets suggesting a meaningful gap to current levels, investors may question whether HubSpot is attractively priced or whether the market already anticipates slower growth. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 35.9% Undervalued With HubSpot closing at US$371.56 versus a narrative fair value of US$579.55, the widely followed view points to a sizeable valuation gap, anchored on future growth and margin expansion assumptions rather than current profitability.  The analysts have a consensus price target of $695.33 for HubSpot based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $910.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $589.88.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what earnings profile could support that kind of spread in targets? The narrative leans on faster revenue compounding, rising margins, and a rich future P/E multiple tied to a specific discount rate and timeline. The exact mix of those inputs is where the story gets interesting. Want to know the growth blueprint behind this high valuation? The key element of this narrative is a sharp swing from losses to meaningful earnings with revenue compounding ahead of the wider market, then applying a premium earnings multiple that assumes HubSpot earns its place alongside higher priced software names. Interested in which bold financial projections sit underneath that fair value line and how sensitive it is to those assumptions? This is where the full narrative fills in the gaps. The most followed narrative applies an 8.47% discount rate to those projected cash flows and earnings, which is central to bringing future revenue and profit expectations back to today’s fair value estimate. Result: Fair Value of $579.55 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this story can crack if AI monetization stays unproven or if smaller customers pull back on software spending during weaker periods, which would pressure growth and margins. Find out about the key risks to this HubSpot narrative.  Build Your Own HubSpot Narrative If you are not fully convinced by this story or simply prefer to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in just a few minutes: Do it your way A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding HubSpot. Looking for more investment ideas? If HubSpot feels like only part of the picture, now is the time to widen your search and line up fresh ideas that match your own style and goals.  Spot potential value opportunities early by scanning these 882 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that the market may be pricing cautiously right now. Ride powerful tech themes by checking out these 28 AI penny stocks positioned at the intersection of software, data and automation. Add income ideas to your watchlist by zeroing in on these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that could complement growth focused holdings.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if HubSpot might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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