Assessing Calumet’s (CLMT) Valuation After Its New Senior Unsecured Notes Offering

Simply Wall St.01-12

AdvertisementWhy Calumet’s New Bond Deal Matters For Stock Investors Calumet (CLMT) has just completed a fixed income offering of roughly $400.9 million in senior unsecured notes, a funding move that ...

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See our latest analysis for Calumet. The senior notes come on the heels of fresh 2025 guidance indicating a net loss of between $69.0 million and $12.0 million and recent investor outreach at a Goldman Sachs energy conference, with the 90 day share price return of 8.70% suggesting momentum has picked up despite a 1 year total shareholder return decline of 8.64%. If Calumet’s bond deal has you thinking about where capital is moving next, it could be a good moment to scan aerospace and defense stocks for other ideas in the market. With Calumet guiding to a 2025 net loss and the shares trading just below the average analyst target, you have to ask: is the recent bond deal creating an undervalued setup, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 7.4% Undervalued With Calumet last closing at US$19.87 against a narrative fair value of US$21.45, the gap is small enough that the underlying assumptions really matter. The MaxSAF 150 project is on track to start up in the first half of 2026, enabling Calumet to produce 120-150 million annual gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at relatively low capital costs, capturing premiums of $1-$2/gallon over renewable diesel and tapping into surging mandated and voluntary SAF demand globally. This is likely to drive material step-up in revenues and EBITDA margin expansion once operational. Read the complete narrative. Curious what has to go right for that price gap to close? The most followed narrative leans on steady top line growth, rising margins and a future earnings multiple more typical of higher growth sectors. The full story is in how those ingredients are stitched together across the next few years. Result: Fair Value of $21.45 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, the story only holds if supportive renewable fuel policies persist and Calumet continues to manage its sizeable debt load without squeezing future flexibility. Find out about the key risks to this Calumet narrative.  Build Your Own Calumet Narrative If the current narrative does not quite fit your view, or you prefer to weigh the numbers yourself, you can draft a tailored version in just a few minutes. To begin, use Do it your way. A great starting point for your Calumet research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Calumet has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Use the Screener to quickly surface more focused ideas that might better fit your goals and risk comfort.  Spot potential underpriced opportunities by scanning these 882 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that align with your view on cash flow strength and market expectations. Explore these 28 AI penny stocks to concentrate on companies tied to specific revenue segments rather than just headlines. Use these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% to filter for yields that could complement a long term total return approach.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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