By Adam Clark
Apple was the biggest player in a growing smartphone market in 2025. The iPhone maker will have to grapple with cost pressures this year but it has some levers to pull to keep its rising sales on track.
Apple took a 20% market share of the global smartphone market last year, taking top place just ahead of South Korea's Samsung Electronics, according to Counterpoint Research data published Monday.
More important than the absolute share was Apple's impressive growth -- its shipments rose 10% in 2025 from the previous year, far outstripping 2% growth in the overall market. That was the highest increase among the top five brands.
"Apple's growth in 2025 was driven by its expanding presence and rising demand across emerging and mid--size markets, supported by a stronger product mix," said Counterpoint Research analyst Varun Mishra. "The iPhone 17 series gained significant traction in Q4 [the fourth quarter] following its successful launch, while the iPhone 16 continued to perform exceptionally well in Japan, India and Southeast Asia."
But continuing that performance this year could present a challenge. Counterpoint expects global smartphone shipments in 2026 are expected to shrink 2.1% due to rising memory costs. As Barron's has recently written, memory prices are expected to surge 40%-50% this quarter and can make up around 10%-15% of the total bill of materials for a high-end smartphone such as an iPhone.
Still, Apple's customer loyalty and planned innovations could help offset rising supply costs. Wedbush's Daniel Ives -- an outspoken bull on technology stocks -- identifies three key factors for the company to maintain its smartphone strength -- an impressive iPhone 18 launch, a successful artificial-intelligence partnership with Google and a long-awaited update to digital assistant Siri.
"We believe rising ASPs [average selling prices] and finally the introduction of a foldable phone likely during the September iPhone 18 product cycle will be key," Ives wrote in a research note. "We would expect ASPs to increase by roughly $100 on iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max models given the rising cost of production globally."
The other two elements are AI related. Apple is ready to pay Alphabet, Google's parent, roughly $1 billion a year for access to the search company's Gemini AI technology, according to previous Bloomberg reporting.
Ives argues a formal announcement of the partnership would help Wall Street forget fears Apple is moving slowly on AI and counter the threat from Samsung. Google's Gemini is the default assistant on Samsung's newest line of smartphones.
That could then be combined with a revamped Siri early as March, providing an additional potential revenue source apart from the launch of new handsets.
"We would expect an AI driven subscription service to be launched and unveiled to Apple's unrivaled consumer installed base this summer," Ives wrote.
Apple shares were flat in premarket trading Monday.
Write to Adam Clark at adam.clark@barrons.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 12, 2026 06:57 ET (11:57 GMT)
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