This 100-Year-Old Stock Market Theory Is Flashing A Buy Signal Again

Benzinga_recent_news01-13

A century-old market theory just flashed a rare buy signal, suggesting the three-year-old bull market may still have unfinished business as 2026 gets underway. In a Monday email note, Adam Turnquist, ...

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History suggests the bull market may still have another leg higher.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IE00B64QTZ34.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US SMALL CAP \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","KEX":"卡比海运","LU1169590202.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX)  U.S. SELECT EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4500":"航空公司","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SNCY":"Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","MATX":"Matson Inc","BK4022":"陆运","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4520":"美国基建股","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","BK4021":"海运","JBHT":"JB Hunt运输服务","BK4008":"航空公司","LU1169589451.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX)  U.S. SELECT EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4232":"货物陆运","IE00BLDYK493.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US SMALL CAP \"A\" (USD) INC","ALGT":"忠诚旅游"},"translate_title":"这个有100年历史的股市理论再次闪烁买入信号","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DOG":0.6,"ALGT":1,"UDOW":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"VOO":0.8,"KEX":1,".DJI":0.68,"MATX":1,"DXD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"MYMmain":0.6,"SNCY":1,"JBHT":1},"content_text":"A century-old market theory just flashed a rare buy signal, suggesting the three-year-old bull market may still have unfinished business as 2026 gets underway.\nIn a Monday email note, Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, highlighted that Dow Theory has once again turned bullish.\n“A Dow Theory buy signal has been triggered, reinforcing the case that the primary trend for the broader market remains higher,” he said.\nThe signal rests on a simple but demanding idea. \nWhen industrial stocks and transportation stocks rally together, the broader market trend usually follows.\nDow Theory dates back to the early 1900s. It was developed by Charles Dow, co-founder and editor of The Wall Street Journal. \nThe framework uses two major benchmarks: the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average. The core principle is confirmation. \nThe logic is intuitive. If industrial firms are producing more goods, transportation companies should see rising demand to ship those goods. When both groups move higher in unison, Dow believed it reflected improving economic conditions and a healthy market trend.\nAccording to LPL Financial's analysis, both pillars of the theory have broken out at the same time.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average has been in a sustained uptrend since clearing new highs in August. While it lagged the broader market in 2025, it still posted a 13% price return.\nThe Dow Jones Transportation Index lagged earlier in the cycle, but it’s now catching up quickly.\nThe transportation average has surged 17% over the past six weeks and just reached its first record high since late 2024.\nThat breakout completed the confirmation Dow Theory requires.\nWith both indexes making new highs together, the buy signal was triggered.\nRecent performance shows transportation stocks pulling ahead of the broader market.\nOver the past three months, transportation shares have outperformed both industrial stocks and the wider S&P 500.\nThe SPDR S&P Transportation ETF (NYSE:XTN) has jumped 18.3%. The iShares US Transportation ETF (NYSE:IYT) gained 11%.\nBoth beat the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), which rose 7.9%, and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO) over the same period.\nSeveral individual names drove those gains. Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:SNCY) surged 60.6%. Kirby Corp. (NYSE:KEX) climbed 56.4%. Matson Inc. (NYSE:MATX) rose 50.6%. J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. (NASDAQ:JBHT) gained 49.6%. Allegiant Travel Co. (NASDAQ:ALGT) jumped 49.3%.\nHistorically, Dow Theory buy signals have carried weight.\nSince 1964, the S&P 500 has posted average 12-month forward returns of 11.1% following similar signals. The median return stands at 13.9%. Stocks finished higher 83% of the time across the last 12 Dow Theory buy signals.\nWhile no indicator is foolproof, Dow Theory's long track record helps explain why technicians continue to monitor it closely — especially when it aligns with improving market breadth and sector leadership.\nFor now, the message from this century-old framework is clear: the bull market's trend remains intact — and history suggests the next chapter may still be unfolding.\nImage created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2603255305","isCrawlerRequest":true}