Is Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Pricing In Too Much Good News After Strong Share Price Run

Simply Wall St.01-14

If you are wondering whether Ulta Beauty's share price still offers value after a strong run, this article will walk through what the current market price might imply about the stock. Ulta Beauty ...

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Ulta Beauty ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-ulta/ulta-beauty/news/is-ulta-beauty-ulta-pricing-in-too-much-good-news-after-stro\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Pricing In Too Much Good News After Strong Share Price Run</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Pricing In Too Much Good News After Strong Share Price Run\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-14 03:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-ulta/ulta-beauty/news/is-ulta-beauty-ulta-pricing-in-too-much-good-news-after-stro><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether Ulta Beauty's share price still offers value after a strong run, this article will walk through what the current market price might imply about the stock. Ulta Beauty ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-ulta/ulta-beauty/news/is-ulta-beauty-ulta-pricing-in-too-much-good-news-after-stro\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4200","symbol_name":"专卖店","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-ulta/ulta-beauty/news/is-ulta-beauty-ulta-pricing-in-too-much-good-news-after-stro","article_id":"2603265665","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/industry/4444000-choice2-main-header/1585186827172"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/retail/nasdaq-ulta/ulta-beauty/news/is-ulta-beauty-ulta-pricing-in-too-much-good-news-after-stro","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2603265665","pubTimestamp":1768332793,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether Ulta Beauty's share price still offers value after a strong run, this article will walk through what the current market price might imply about the stock.\nUlta Beauty recently closed at US$661.49, with returns of 1.8% over 7 days, 10.0% over 30 days, 6.7% year to date, 63.7% over 1 year, 33.7% over 3 years, and 125.6% over 5 years. These figures naturally raise questions about what is already priced in and how much risk you are taking on at these levels.\nRecent...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4200":"专卖店","BK4588":"碎股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU1169590202.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX)  U.S. SELECT EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1169589451.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX)  U.S. SELECT EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","ULTA":"Ulta美容","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap"},"translate_title":"Ulta Beauty(ULTA)股价强劲上涨后是否包含了太多好消息","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"ULTA":1.5},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether Ulta Beauty's share price still offers value after a strong run, this article will walk through what the current market price might imply about the stock. Ulta Beauty recently closed at US$661.49, with returns of 1.8% over 7 days, 10.0% over 30 days, 6.7% year to date, 63.7% over 1 year, 33.7% over 3 years, and 125.6% over 5 years. These figures naturally raise questions about what is already priced in and how much risk you are taking on at these levels. Recent coverage has continued to focus on Ulta Beauty's position in the US beauty retail market and how investors are thinking about its long term growth potential and competitive strengths. That backdrop is important context when assessing whether the recent share price performance lines up with what the fundamentals might support. Simply Wall St currently gives Ulta Beauty a value score of 1 out of 6. We will break this down using several valuation approaches before coming back to a broader, and arguably more useful, way to think about what the stock is really worth.  Ulta Beauty scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown. AdvertisementApproach 1: Ulta Beauty Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a business might be worth today by projecting future cash flows and then discounting those back to a single present value figure. For Ulta Beauty, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $952.2 million, and analysts provide explicit projections out to 2027, with an estimated free cash flow of $1,011.2 million in that year. Beyond that, Simply Wall St extrapolates out to 2035, with annual free cash flows in the model remaining below $1.3b and discounted back to today. Pulling those projections together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $379.67 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $661.49, the model implies the stock is around 74.2% above this estimate, which points to a rich valuation on these cash flow assumptions. Result: OVERVALUED Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Ulta Beauty may be overvalued by 74.2%. Discover 883 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities. ULTA Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Ulta Beauty. Approach 2: Ulta Beauty Price vs Earnings For a profitable company like Ulta Beauty, the P/E ratio is a useful way to see how much you are paying for each dollar of current earnings. This makes it a straightforward check against the more detailed DCF work. What counts as a \"normal\" P/E really depends on what the market expects for earnings growth and how risky those earnings are. Faster and more predictable growth can justify a higher P/E, while slower or less certain growth usually lines up with a lower P/E. Ulta Beauty currently trades on a P/E of 24.66x. That sits above the Specialty Retail industry average P/E of 20.85x and below a peer group average of 37.01x, so the market is putting a higher multiple on Ulta Beauty than on the industry as a whole, but not as high as some peers. Simply Wall St's Fair Ratio for Ulta Beauty is 17.46x. This is a proprietary estimate of what P/E might make sense given the company’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk characteristics. It aims to be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the industry average, which do not fully capture those differences. Comparing Ulta Beauty's actual P/E of 24.66x to the Fair Ratio of 17.46x suggests the shares are pricing in more optimism than this framework would support. Result: OVERVALUED NasdaqGS:ULTA P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1443 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Ulta Beauty Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about a company, linked directly to your assumptions for future revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value that you can compare to today’s price. On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives let you set out why you think Ulta Beauty might justify, for example, a fair value close to US$680 if you focus on wellness expansion, digital investments, loyalty strength and new markets, or closer to US$405 if you are more focused on rising costs, competition and the Target partnership ending. The platform then turns those views into a forecast and a fair value that updates automatically when fresh news or earnings arrive, so you can quickly see whether your fair value still sits above or below the current share price and decide how you want to act on that gap. Do you think there's more to the story for Ulta Beauty? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! NasdaqGS:ULTA 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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