Assessing TPG Telecom’s Valuation As Spectrum Holiday And 5G Slowdown Reshape Spending And Pricing

Simply Wall St.01-13

AdvertisementEvent overview and why it matters for TPG Telecom Recent commentary around an upcoming spectrum holiday and slower 5G rollout has put TPG Telecom (ASX:TPG) in focus, as lower expected ...

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The 1 year total...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SPB":"Spectrum Brands Holdings","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","BK7042":"综合电信业务","TPG.AU":"TPG TELECOM LTD","LU2065732104.USD":"ALLSPRING (LUX) WF GLOBAL SMALL CAP EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4018":"居家用品","TPG":"TPG, Inc."},"translate_title":"随着频谱假期和5G放缓重塑支出和定价，评估TPG Telecom的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TPG.AU":1,"SPB":1.5,"TPG":1.5},"content_text":"AdvertisementEvent overview and why it matters for TPG Telecom Recent commentary around an upcoming spectrum holiday and slower 5G rollout has put TPG Telecom (ASX:TPG) in focus, as lower expected capital spending coincides with planned postpaid mobile price increases of about 3%. See our latest analysis for TPG Telecom. At a share price of A$3.97, TPG Telecom’s 7 day share price return of 4.2% and 30 day share price return of 4.47% follow a 90 day share price decline of 24.38%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 31.58% contrasts with a softer 3 year total shareholder return of 27.56% and a 5 year total shareholder return decline of 9.57%, suggesting recent momentum is rebuilding after a weaker longer stretch as investors react to the spectrum holiday and pricing plans. If pricing power and capital spending are on your radar, it could be a good time to broaden your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With TPG Telecom trading at A$3.97, sitting below some analysts’ price targets and showing mixed long term returns, the key question is whether current pricing already reflects its spectrum holiday and pricing plans, or whether the market is still not fully pricing in a potential buying opportunity. Most Popular Narrative: 16.5% Undervalued The most followed narrative places TPG Telecom’s fair value at A$4.75 per share, above the last close of A$3.97, framing a potential valuation gap for investors to assess. Material network and IT investment cycles including 5G rollout, Huawei equipment replacement, and brand system overhauls are now largely complete, setting up a multi-year period of structurally lower capex. This is expected to directly influence free cash flow conversion and capital returns, while also enabling cost-outs ($100m targeted by 2029) to flow through to net profit. Read the complete narrative. Want to see how lower capex, margin rebuild and future earnings all fit together? The key driver here is a profit profile that looks very different from today, backed by specific assumptions on revenue trends, profitability and the valuation multiple the market might one day pay for those earnings. Curious which of those levers does the heavy lifting in that A$4.75 fair value? Result: Fair Value of $4.75 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, there are still some clear pressure points, including intense competition in mobile and fixed broadband and execution risk around complex IT consolidation and digital migrations. Find out about the key risks to this TPG Telecom narrative.  Build Your Own TPG Telecom Narrative If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or just prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a complete TPG Telecom view in a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your TPG Telecom research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? TPG Telecom might be the focus today, but you will spot more opportunities if you compare it with other themes and sectors using targeted stock screens.  Catch potential turnaround stories early by scanning these 3537 penny stocks with strong financials that pair low share prices with balance sheets and fundamentals that may be stronger than you expect. Target future facing trends by reviewing these 26 AI penny stocks that sit at the intersection of artificial intelligence and higher growth expectations. Stay disciplined on price by filtering for these 880 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where cash flow based metrics point to a possible mismatch between business performance and current market pricing.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if TPG Telecom might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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