Precious metals ETF holdings still short of ATHs, but history suggests downside risk to prices – Heraeus

Kitco01-12

(Kitco News) – The sharp end-of-year rally that pushed gold, silver and the PGMs to new all-time highs has created fresh downside risk to prices, even as many of 2025’s drivers remain in place and ETF...

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December.“There was some overlap in the price drivers for gold, silver and the PGMs as the threat of US tariffs led to unusually large flows of metal into US vaults, impacting liquidity elsewhere,” they noted. “That threat still hangs over palladium and platinum with the US government’s Section 232 and Russian anti-dumping investigations yet to report after being delayed by the US government shutdown. Both platinum and silver were historically undervalued compared to gold early in the year and their prices have now narrowed that gap dramatically.”The analysts said the platinum market is expected to show a deficit in 2025, and it’s projected to remain in deficit in 2026, while the palladium and rhodium markets are less tight. “After a year of lower-than-normal South African PGM production, it does not necessarily take much buying to rally the price at a time when South African producers were closed for the holidays, limiting spot availability,” they wrote. “At the same time, lease rates for silver and the PGMs remain elevated but are not as high as in October.”“Platinum ETF holdings have gone up, but not on a scale to match the price rally (+197 koz in December, +96 koz for the year),” they noted. “In 2020, when the price more than doubled from its March low, ETF holdings went up by 717 koz. Gold and silver ETF holdings climbed by 20% in 2025, and palladium and rhodium ETF holdings rose by 50% (+393 koz) and almost 90%, respectively, though that was only +9.3 koz for rhodium.”However, the analysts pointed out that despite the strong rally, none of the metals’ ETF holdings have reached record levels. “Speculative positioning in futures has also risen, but again is nowhere near record levels even with record prices,” they said. “That potentially leaves room for investor interest to increase.”The platinum rally was very stretched by the end of December from a technical perspective. “On a daily price basis, the RSI showed the platinum price was at its most overbought on record in December (daily RSI >90),” the analysts said. “The platinum price was also 44.4% above its 200-day moving average (m.a.) on 26 December. On seven prior occasions in which the price has been more than 20% above its 200-day moving average, the price then entered a correction (10-20% loss) or bear market (>20% decline). To varying degrees, the other precious metals also show the same overbought syndrome, increasing the downside risk to prices.”Heraeus noted that geopolitics has taken center stage in January, driving gold prices to record highs once again.“The US has pivoted to Latin America, capturing the president of Venezuela and his wife and transporting them to New York for trial and seizing tankers with Venezuelan oil,” they wrote. “Greenland has also been put back in the spotlight on the grounds of US national security, with the US president interested in Greenland’s critical minerals’ deposits. This has caused some consternation in Europe as Denmark is a NATO member, and it has complicated an already strained relationship with the US, which also has some differences from the EU in its approach to ending the Ukraine conflict.”The analysts said that while the underlying drivers of the gold rally appear to be intact, “the price movement in 2025 was extreme and the metal is overbought, so it may take some time to consolidate its gains.”Gold prices are adding to their earlier gains on Monday as they pull away from the $4,600 per ounce level.Spot gold last traded at $4,625.66 per ounce for a gain of 2.57% on the session.Turning to silver, Heraeus analysts noted that the gray metal’s prices came under pressure early in the new year.“Prices rallied to a new all-time high of $84/oz in late December, marking gains of 147% for the year, before easing at the start of 2026 as investors took profits,” they said. “Silver ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of around 13 moz since 1 January, reducing total holdings to 850 moz. Adding to headwinds, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) announced on 30 December an increase in margin requirements across the precious metals, marking the second margin hike in a single week.”“Historically, margin hikes have tended to trigger short-term price pullbacks, mainly by forcing leveraged traders to reduce positions,” they added. “During the 2011 silver rally, the CME raised margin requirements five times in nine days, and the price fell by 30% within two weeks as leveraged longs were liquidated.”And China’s new 2026 restrictions on silver exports now limit outbound shipments to a handful of companies. “From 1 January 2026, silver export controls will be more closely aligned with those of other strategic minerals such as rare earths, antimony and tungsten,” the analysts wrote. “Under the new rules, only 44 companies will be authorised to export silver, and obtaining approval will become more difficult. China, the second-largest producer and exporter of silver, shipped more than 4,000 tonnes in the first 11 months of 2025. The move comes as silver surged to a record price and Shanghai premiums climbed to an all-time high of $1.72 over London prices.”Silver prices are continuing to outperform on Monday, with prices holding above $85 per ounce and approaching session highs.Spot silver last traded at $85.549 per ounce for a gain of 7.02% on the daily chart.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.2","shortVersion":"4.36.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2603540028","isCrawlerRequest":true}