Al Root
Rivian Automotive needs to be more like Tesla.
That's the message of Wolfe Research analyst Emmanuel Rosner, who on Monday downgraded shares of Rivian to Sell from Hold. Rosner has a price target of $16 for the stock, about $3 lower than recent levels.
Rivian stock traded as low as $18.53 on Monday, down about 1%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 was down 0.1% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.3%.
Coming into Monday trading, Rivian stock is up about 40% over the past 12 months. Investors are focused on the launch of Rivian's new lower-priced R2 platform vehicles, which will launch this year and should help offset the expiration of the $7,500 federal electric-vehicle purchase tax credit in September.
Rosner also attributes recent gains to optimism over Rivian's autonomous driving programs. In December, the company hosted its first "Autonomy & AI Day," at which it unveiled its own computer for autonomous driving applications. Rivian plans to develop hands-free, point-to-point driving applications that it can charge users on a subscription basis. It's very similar to Tesla's approach with its Full Self-Driving product.
Any benefits from self-driving developments and subscriptions won't be felt until late 2026, Rosner said. The coming few months will be a "catalyst vacuum" for Rivian and AI.
On the other hand, Tesla should have a steady "drumbeat" of AI-related news, including robo-taxis and humanoid robot developments. Rosner rates Tesla stock Hold and doesn't have a price target for shares.
What's more, the stock has priced in some demand improvement from R2 sales. Rivian sold about 42,000 cars in 2025, down from about 52,000 in 2024. Wall Street expects 68,000 for 2026.
Despite the stock gains, Wall Street remains skeptical. Overall, 30% of analysts covering the company rate shares Buy, according to FactSet. The average Buy-rating ratio for stocks in the S&P 500 is about 55%.
Rosner's downgrade to Sell from Hold doesn't change the Buy-rating ratio; it changes Rivian's Sell-rating ratio. Now, 26% of analysts covering the stock rate shares Sell. The average sell ratio for S&P 500 stocks is closer to 7%.
The average analyst price target for Rivian stock is about $17.
Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 12, 2026 11:16 ET (16:16 GMT)
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