Assessing Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Valuation As Short Interest As A Share Of Float Rises

Simply Wall St.01-14

AdvertisementRising short interest puts fresh focus on Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Recent data shows an 11.63% rise in short interest for Annaly Capital Management (NLY), with 13.08 million shares...

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See our latest analysis for Annaly Capital Management. Despite the recent pickup in bearish positioning, Annaly Capital Management’s share price has held at US$23.19, with a 90 day share price return of 11.92% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 46.64%. This suggests momentum has been building over the past year even as sentiment looks more cautious. If short interest has your attention, it can be useful to compare what you are seeing here with other income focused financial names and broaden your watchlist with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership. With NLY trading around US$23.19, a value score of 5, an estimated intrinsic discount of about 46% and rising short interest, you have to ask: is this a genuine mispricing, or is the market already factoring in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 1.7% Overvalued With Annaly Capital Management last closing at US$23.19 against a narrative fair value of about US$22.80, the story here hinges on how future earnings and margins are expected to develop rather than on short term sentiment.  The analysts have a consensus price target of $21.023 for Annaly Capital Management based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you would need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $3.4 billion, earnings will come to $3.2 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 7.0x, assuming you use a discount rate of 11.0%.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what has to happen with revenue, earnings and margins for that fair value to make sense? The narrative spells out a very specific earnings path and a compressed future P/E that you might want to stress test against your own expectations. Result: Fair Value of $22.80 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on conditions holding up, since a weaker mortgage origination backdrop or a tougher credit environment could quickly challenge those earnings and valuation assumptions. Find out about the key risks to this Annaly Capital Management narrative. Another View: Value Signals Point The Other Way That 1.7% “overvalued” fair value from the narrative sits awkwardly next to some of the hard numbers. At US$23.19, Annaly Capital Management trades on a P/E of 11.8x, compared with 14.1x for peers and a fair ratio of 18.2x, and at a 46.2% discount to the SWS fair value estimate of US$43.10. If one method says slightly rich and another suggests a wide discount, which set of assumptions do you trust more? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NYSE:NLY P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Annaly Capital Management Narrative If you look at this and think the story should read differently, or simply prefer to test your own assumptions against the data, you can build a complete view in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Annaly Capital Management research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Ready to hunt for more opportunities? If Annaly Capital Management has sharpened your thinking, do not stop here. The right idea often appears when you compare a few very different setups side by side.  Spot potential value gaps by scanning these 884 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may trade below what their cash flows imply. Front run emerging themes by checking out these 25 AI penny stocks positioned around artificial intelligence trends. Strengthen your income watchlist by reviewing these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% offering yields above 3%.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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