Assessing USA Rare Earth (USAR) Valuation After Recent Share Price Volatility

Simply Wall St.01-14

USA Rare Earth (USAR) is catching investor attention after recent trading moves, with the stock showing a mix of short term declines and longer term gains that highlight contrasting return patterns. ...

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Yet year to date the share price return is 17.72% and the 1 year total shareholder return stands at 26.67%, suggesting...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4168":"多种金属与采矿","USAR":"USA Rare Earth Inc."},"translate_title":"在近期股价波动后评估美国稀土(USAR)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"USAR":1.98},"content_text":"USA Rare Earth (USAR) is catching investor attention after recent trading moves, with the stock showing a mix of short term declines and longer term gains that highlight contrasting return patterns. See our latest analysis for USA Rare Earth. Recent trading has been choppy, with a 1 day share price return of a 6.10% decline and a 90 day share price return of a 50.54% decline. Yet year to date the share price return is 17.72% and the 1 year total shareholder return stands at 26.67%, suggesting longer term momentum has held up better than the recent pullback at the latest share price of $16.657. If you are weighing opportunities around critical minerals and future supply chains, it can also be useful to scan fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a way to spot other potential ideas. So with USA Rare Earth trading at $16.657 against a $27.20 analyst target and flagged as having a low value score, is the stock being overlooked by the market or already reflecting its future growth potential? AdvertisementDCF valuation: a wide gap to the current share price Our DCF model estimates a fair value of $66.73 for USA Rare Earth, compared with the last close of $16.66, which points to a wide valuation gap. The SWS DCF model projects potential future cash flows for the company and discounts them back to today using a required rate of return to arrive at a single fair value estimate. It is particularly useful for early stage or unprofitable businesses because it focuses on prospective cash generation rather than current earnings. For USA Rare Earth, the DCF result sits alongside a profile that includes no reported revenue, a loss of $285.381, and forecast annual revenue growth of 52.28%. That combination of limited current income and high forecast growth helps explain why a cash flow based approach can produce a value far above the present share price. Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. Result: DCF Fair value of $66.73 (UNDERVALUED) However, this hinges on a business with no reported revenue yet and a recent 51% decline in its 90-day share price, which could quickly challenge that valuation story. Find out about the key risks to this USA Rare Earth narrative. Why the market view is so uncertain Outside the SWS DCF model, the picture for USA Rare Earth becomes more complicated. The company currently reports no revenue, a loss of $285,381 and negative shareholder equity, which feeds through to a P/B ratio of roughly -36.5x versus about 2.5x for the wider US Metals and Mining industry and 12x for peers. Those gaps are large and hard to interpret as a clear bargain or clear warning because they stem from balance sheet weakness and early stage economics rather than steady profits. With analysts also split enough that their price target range is not statistically tight, it raises a question: how much weight should you really put on a single fair value number at this stage? See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NasdaqGM:USAR P/B Ratio as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out USA Rare Earth for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 884 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own USA Rare Earth Narrative If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or simply prefer to build your own view from the ground up, you can shape a full narrative in just a few minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your USA Rare Earth research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 5 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you are serious about building a stronger portfolio, do not stop with a single stock. Use focused screens to surface other clear, data driven ideas quickly.  Zero in on potential high risk, high reward moves by scanning these 3533 penny stocks with strong financials that already clear basic financial quality hurdles. Ride the surge in artificial intelligence by checking out these 25 AI penny stocks that intersect powerful themes in automation, data and software. Hunt for possible mispriced opportunities by reviewing these 884 undervalued stocks based on cash flows where prices differ from underlying cash flow strength.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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