Is It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Strong Recent Share Gains?

Simply Wall St.01-16

If you are wondering whether BHP Group at around A$49.37 offers solid value or is pricing in too much optimism, it helps to step back and look at what the recent share performance and fundamentals are...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

We need your insight to fill this gap

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2603574089?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/256654-main-header/1585186732463","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-01-16 11:37","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2603574089","market":"nz","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Is It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Strong Recent Share Gains?","media":"Simply Wall St.","content":"<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether BHP Group at around A$49.37 offers solid value or is pricing in too much optimism, it helps to step back and look at what the recent share performance and fundamentals are...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-rec\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"simplywall_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Strong Recent Share Gains?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs It Too Late To Consider BHP Group (ASX:BHP) After Strong Recent Share Gains?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-16 11:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-rec><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>If you are wondering whether BHP Group at around A$49.37 offers solid value or is pricing in too much optimism, it helps to step back and look at what the recent share performance and fundamentals are...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-rec\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BHP.AU","symbol_name":"BHP GROUP LTD","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-rec","article_id":"2603574089","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/256654-main-header/1585186732463"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-bhp/bhp-group-shares/news/is-it-too-late-to-consider-bhp-group-asxbhp-after-strong-rec","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2603574089","pubTimestamp":1768534647,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"If you are wondering whether BHP Group at around A$49.37 offers solid value or is pricing in too much optimism, it helps to step back and look at what the recent share performance and fundamentals are actually saying.\nOver the last week the stock return is 4.3%, over 30 days it is 11.6%, year to date it is 7.9%, and over the past year it is 28.8%, with a 3 year return of 15.7% and a 5 year return of 67.3%. These figures may influence how much upside or downside you feel is left.\nRecent news...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BHP.AU":"BHP GROUP LTD","LU0300736492.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4588":"碎股","BK7095":"多种金属与采矿","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","BK7507":"资源股","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4168":"多种金属与采矿","BHP":"必和必拓公司","LU0300736062.USD":"FRANKLIN NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK7511":"ESG概念"},"translate_title":"在近期股价强劲上涨后，现在考虑必和必拓集团（ASX：BHP）是否为时已晚？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"DCF":1,"BHP.AU":1.5,"BHP":1.5},"content_text":"If you are wondering whether BHP Group at around A$49.37 offers solid value or is pricing in too much optimism, it helps to step back and look at what the recent share performance and fundamentals are actually saying. Over the last week the stock return is 4.3%, over 30 days it is 11.6%, year to date it is 7.9%, and over the past year it is 28.8%, with a 3 year return of 15.7% and a 5 year return of 67.3%. These figures may influence how much upside or downside you feel is left. Recent news coverage has focused on BHP Group as one of the large resource names investors track closely for signals about global commodity demand and capital allocation decisions. These stories often frame the share price moves around questions such as how the company manages its portfolio of assets, its balance sheet, and shareholder returns. BHP Group currently has a valuation score of 3/6, indicating it screens as undervalued on half of the checks used in that framework. Next, we will walk through the main valuation approaches behind that score before finishing with a way to put these numbers into a fuller context.  Find out why BHP Group's 28.8% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers. AdvertisementApproach 1: BHP Group Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes projected future cash flows and discounts them back to today using a required rate of return. The result is an estimate of what the whole business could be worth in today’s money. For BHP Group, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow stands at about $10.35b. Analysts provide explicit forecasts for several years, and Simply Wall St then extends these to a full 10 year path, with projected free cash flow in 2030 of $10.23b. Discounting these projected cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of $46.74 per share. Compared with the current share price of around A$49.37, the DCF suggests the stock is about 5.6% overvalued, which sits comfortably inside a margin of error many investors might accept. Result: ABOUT RIGHT BHP Group is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act. BHP Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026 Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for BHP Group. Approach 2: BHP Group Price vs Earnings For a profitable company like BHP Group, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand for how much investors are paying for each dollar of current earnings. It ties directly to the bottom line, which many investors watch closely when they think about what they are willing to pay for a stock. What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E will usually reflect the growth investors expect and the risks they see. Higher expected earnings growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk can point to a lower P/E. BHP Group currently trades on a P/E of 18.62x. That sits below both the Metals and Mining industry average P/E of 25.12x and the peer group average of 22.93x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for BHP Group is 30.72x, which is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might be given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks. The Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple peer or industry comparison because it adjusts for these company specific features rather than assuming a one size fits all multiple. Since BHP Group’s actual P/E of 18.62x is meaningfully below the Fair Ratio of 30.72x, this framework views the shares as trading at a discount to that tailored reference point. Result: UNDERVALUED ASX:BHP P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1440 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth. Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your BHP Group Narrative Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. On Simply Wall St’s Community page you can use Narratives, where you set out your own story for BHP Group, link that story to a simple forecast for revenue, earnings and margins, and then see the fair value that results. This updates automatically as new news or earnings arrive and helps you compare that fair value with the current price to decide whether you see BHP as closer to the higher A$46.55 analyst target or the lower A$35.82 view. Do you think there's more to the story for BHP Group? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying! ASX:BHP 1-Year Stock Price Chart  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if BHP Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.36.0","shortVersion":"4.36.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2603574089","isCrawlerRequest":true}