A Look At Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Valuation After Upgraded 2025 Guidance And DTX401 BLA Completion

Simply Wall St.01-15

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) is back in focus after reporting preliminary 2025 revenue guidance of US$672 million to US$674 million, which is above its prior range, alongside completing an FDA BLA...

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See our latest analysis for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical. The raised 2025 revenue guidance and DTX401 BLA completion come after a volatile period, with a 7 day share price return of 6.97% but a 30 day share price return of a 33.45% decline, and a 1 year total shareholder return of a 39.76% decline. Together, these figures suggest that recent momentum is tentatively rebuilding from a weak longer term base as investors reassess both growth potential and risk around Ultragenyx’s rare disease pipeline. If this kind of pipeline driven story has your attention, it could be a useful moment to scan other healthcare stocks that might suit your watchlist next. With the share price sharply lower over the past year and revenue guidance now upgraded to about US$673 million, the key question is whether Ultragenyx is still being discounted or if the market already reflects its future growth potential. AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 70.5% Undervalued With Ultragenyx shares at US$24.11 against a narrative fair value of US$81.85, the gap between price and expectations is wide and very clear.  Ultragenyx's clinical pipeline is advancing with five Phase III programs (including UX143 and GTX-102), multiple BLA submissions expected in the coming quarters, and near-term Phase III data readouts (notably for UX143 in OI by year-end and GTX-102 in Angelman syndrome in 2026) serving as upcoming value inflection points that can diversify and significantly accelerate the company's revenue base.  Read the complete narrative. Want to understand why this growth story points to a much higher fair value? Revenue expansion, margin shifts and future earnings expectations all sit at the core of this narrative. Curious how those pieces fit together and what has to go right to justify that valuation gap? Result: Fair Value of $81.85 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this optimistic setup still hinges on successful regulatory outcomes for key gene therapies and on Ultragenyx reducing cash burn to avoid further funding pressure or dilution. Find out about the key risks to this Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical narrative.  Build Your Own Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Narrative If you see the story differently or prefer to analyze the numbers yourself, you can create a custom view in minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If you want to widen your watchlist beyond Ultragenyx, the Simply Wall St Screener can help you quickly surface focused sets of opportunities tailored to your interests.  Spot potential bargains early by scanning these 886 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may be trading below what their cash flows suggest. Hunt for growth potential at the smaller end of the market with these 3532 penny stocks with strong financials that still have solid financial underpinnings. Position yourself for long term trends in automation and data by checking out these 25 AI penny stocks shaping the use of artificial intelligence.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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