Daily LNG export flows fall to preliminary two-month low
Colder weather forecast boosts heating demand next week
Waha Hub prices below zero again due to pipeline constraints
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Jan 14 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid about 9% to a 12-week low on Wednesday on a drop in preliminary gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants in Texas.
Limiting steeper losses was a preliminary decline in daily production and forecasts for colder weather than expected next week, which should lift heating demand.
Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 29.9 cents, or 8.7%, to settle at $3.12 per million British thermal units, their lowest close since October 17.
Share prices for the two biggest U.S. gas producers also dropped. Expand Energy EXE.O fell about 2% to its lowest since October and EQT EQT.N tumbled about 3% to its lowest since September.
In the cash gas market, average prices at the Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL in the Permian Shale in West Texas remained in negative territory for the fifth time this year as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the nation's biggest oil-producing basin.
Waha prices have averaged a negative 17 cents per mmBtu so far this year, compared with $1.15 in 2025 and a five-year average (2021-2025) of $2.88.
Daily Waha prices first averaged below zero in 2019. They did so 17 times in 2019, six times in 2020, once in 2023, a record 49 times in 2024, and 39 times in 2025.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states slid to 109.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in January from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary two-month low of 107.4 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to declines in Texas and Wyoming, according to LSEG data, from 109.3 bcfd on Tuesday and a record 111.2 bcfd on December 21.
Meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly colder than normal through January 29, with the most frigid days expected around January 17-21, which includes the U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend on January 17-19.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 136.2 bcfd this week to 151.8 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants rose to 18.6 bcfd so far in January, up from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.
But on a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to drop to a preliminary two-month low of 17.4 bcfd on Wednesday due to declines at Freeport LNG's 2.4-bcfd plant in Texas and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi in Texas, down from 18.3 bcfd on Tuesday and a record 19.5 bcfd on January 12.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost U.S. gas, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $11 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe, a three-month high, and around $10 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Jan 9 Forecast | Week ended Jan 2 Actual | Year ago Jan 9 | Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 9 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | -90 | -119 | -227 | -146 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,166 | 3,256 | 3,152 | 3,079 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +2.8% | +1.0% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.35 | 3.42 | 3.72 | 3.62 | 3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.16 | 10.62 | 14.67 | 11.94 | 18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 9.61 | 9.61 | 14.16 | 12.24 | 18.12 |
LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System $(GFS)$ Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) | 489 | 470 | 538 | 440 | 460 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) | 493 | 474 | 538 | 443 | 463 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 109.3 | 109.3 | 109.6 | 103.5 | 98.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 10.3 | 9.7 | 9.7 | N/A | 9.6 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 119.6 | 119.0 | 119.4 | N/A | 108.3 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 4.0 | 3.9 | 4.0 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.8 | 5.9 | 5.7 | N/A | 5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas | 18.6 | 18.5 | 17.5 | 15.1 | 12.8 |
U.S. Commercial | 15.0 | 15.8 | 20.7 | 19.1 | 17.3 |
U.S. Residential | 24.4 | 26.2 | 35.2 | 34.9 | 29.9 |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.4 | 32.1 | 32.8 | 37.7 | 32.5 |
U.S. Industrial | 24.9 | 25.3 | 26.9 | 26.3 | 26.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 104.0 | 107.8 | 124.6 | 126.3 | 115.5 |
Total U.S. Demand | 132.3 | 136.2 | 151.8 | N/A | 137.0 |
N/A = Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 % of Normal Actual | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 100 | 99 | 76 | 74 | 83 |
Jan-Jul | 99 | 99 | 78 | 76 | 77 |
Oct-Sep | 103 | 104 | 80 | 77 | 76 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jan 16 | Week ended Jan 9 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
Wind | 12 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
37 | 35 | 40 | 42 | 41 | |
Coal | 16 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 17 |
Nuclear | 21 | 22 | 18 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL' | 3.00 | 2.90 | 4.13 | 3.52 | 3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL' | 2.90 | 2.60 | 8.77 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL' | 2.16 | 2.25 | 3.87 | 3.42 | 5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL' | 2.70 | 2.33 | 3.74 | 2.79 | 2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL' | 2.85 | 2.59 | 3.93 | 3.23 | 3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL' | 5.09 | 5.47 | 15.67 | 6.08 | 5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL' | 2.93 | 2.94 | 4.49 | 3.60 | 5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL' | -0.50 | -0.21 | 3.27 | 1.15 | 2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL' | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.22 | 1.13 | 2.13 |
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2025 | Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX' | 68.88 | 68.46 | 147.88 | 77.61 | 61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX' | 36.13 | 33.78 | 75.11 | 60.23 | 54.47 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX' | 19.05 | 17.65 | 52.79 | 44.81 | 68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX' | 20.61 | 23.08 | 44.47 | 34.82 | 59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX' | 23.11 | 25.29 | 39.98 | 28.44 | 53.02 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavinoEditing by Rod Nickel and David Gregorio)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
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