Airbnb's (ABNB) hotel rollout is not expected to drive near-term financials but modest market-level growth in places like Madrid could move the stock before profits improve, RBC Capital Markets said in a note Wednesday.
The brokerage said that with the hotel rollout limited to just New York, Los Angeles and Madrid, representing a low-single-digit share of total nights, it does not expect a near-term financial impact.
"With that said, we believe investors looking at this increasingly at a market by market level would be the first to spot an uplift - which if detected, would likely move the stock," according to the note.
The brokerage said that using third-party data on property counts and occupancy, it estimates Madrid will represent roughly 120 basis points of Airbnb's total room nights in 2025. The addressable hotel opportunity could expand Madrid's supply by as much as 6%.
New York may see the fastest early impact because of stricter short-term rental rules, but Madrid is especially attractive due to its large number of boutique hotels that may welcome a second platform in a market dominated by one major player.
The investment firm added that alongside hotels, updated booking policies, including host-only fees, more flexible cancellations and a postpaid "rent-now-pay-later" model, could also support room night growth over time.
RBC has an outperform rating and price target of $170 on Airbnb.
Shares of Airbnb were down 4.5% in recent trading.
Price: 133.70, Change: -6.37, Percent Change: -4.55
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