Assessing Blue Bird (BLBD) Valuation After Strong Multi‑Year Shareholder Returns

Simply Wall St.01-14

AdvertisementWhy Blue Bird (BLBD) is on investors’ radar Blue Bird (BLBD) has caught investor attention after recent share price moves, with the stock showing mixed returns across different timeframes...

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That shift is prompting a closer look at how the business is currently positioned.\nSee our latest analysis for Blue Bird.\nAt a share price of $49.0, Blue Bird’s short term share price returns have softened over the last quarter, but its 1 year and 3 year total shareholder returns of 18.21% and roughly 3.3x...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4149":"建筑机械与重型卡车","BLBD":"Blue Bird Corp"},"translate_title":"在强劲的多年股东回报后评估蓝鸟(BLBD)估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BLBD":1.5},"content_text":"AdvertisementWhy Blue Bird (BLBD) is on investors’ radar Blue Bird (BLBD) has caught investor attention after recent share price moves, with the stock showing mixed returns across different timeframes. That shift is prompting a closer look at how the business is currently positioned. See our latest analysis for Blue Bird. At a share price of $49.0, Blue Bird’s short term share price returns have softened over the last quarter, but its 1 year and 3 year total shareholder returns of 18.21% and roughly 3.3x highlight that longer term momentum has been strong and may reflect shifting expectations for its school bus and parts business. If this kind of move has caught your eye, it could be a good moment to see what else is shaping up in auto manufacturing and related names through auto manufacturers. With Blue Bird trading at $49.0, alongside an estimated intrinsic discount of 47.57% and around 30% room to published analyst targets, you have to ask: is the stock still on sale, or is the market already pricing in future growth? Most Popular Narrative: 23.1% Undervalued With Blue Bird closing at $49.0 against a narrative fair value of $63.75, the valuation gap hinges largely on margin strength and earnings resilience.  Operational improvements and increased high margin EV and alt fuel sales are expected to drive sustainable margin expansion and greater earnings resilience.  Read the complete narrative. Curious what sits behind that confidence in steadier earnings? The narrative leans heavily on future revenue growth, fatter margins, and a lower P/E than many peers. The numbers tell a specific story. See how they fit together before you judge the discount. Result: Fair Value of $63.75 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, the whole thesis can be knocked off course if government incentives for clean school buses are cut back, or if margins come under pressure from higher costs. Find out about the key risks to this Blue Bird narrative.  Build Your Own Blue Bird Narrative If this view does not quite match your own or you would rather test the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom thesis in minutes with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Blue Bird research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Ready for more investment ideas? If you stop with just one stock, you could miss opportunities that fit your goals better, so broaden your watchlist with a few focused idea sets.  Target potential low priced growth by scanning these 3536 penny stocks with strong financials that pair smaller market caps with stronger balance sheets and fundamentals. Position ahead of potential tech shifts by reviewing these 25 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence themes at the earlier end of the market. Keep your watchlist grounded in fundamentals by hunting through these 883 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that screen for mismatches between share prices and cash flow based estimates.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Blue Bird might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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