Assessing Caterpillar (CAT) Valuation After Strong Recent Share Price Momentum

Simply Wall St.01-14 11:36

Caterpillar (CAT) has drawn fresh attention as its shares recently closed at $636.53, with annual revenue of $64.67b and net income of $9.27b. This has prompted investors to reassess how the stock is ...

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This has prompted investors to reassess how the stock is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-cat/caterpillar/news/assessing-caterpillar-cat-valuation-after-strong-recent-shar\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4532","symbol_name":"文艺复兴科技持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-cat/caterpillar/news/assessing-caterpillar-cat-valuation-after-strong-recent-shar","article_id":"2603667028","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://images.simplywall.st/asset/company-cover/259378-main-header/1756254605397"],"rights":{"source":"simplywall_highlight","url":"https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/capital-goods/nyse-cat/caterpillar/news/assessing-caterpillar-cat-valuation-after-strong-recent-shar","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2603667028","pubTimestamp":1768361778,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"simplywall_highlight","name":"Simply Wall St."},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Caterpillar (CAT) has drawn fresh attention as its shares recently closed at $636.53, with annual revenue of $64.67b and net income of $9.27b. This has prompted investors to reassess how the stock is currently priced.\nSee our latest analysis for Caterpillar.\nThe recent 19.2% 90 day share price return and 73.9% one year total shareholder return suggest momentum has been building around Caterpillar, as investors reassess its risk and growth profile.\nIf Caterpillar’s run has you thinking about...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","BK7084":"电子设备和仪器","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4597":"股息贵族","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","CAT":"卡特彼勒","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","BK4520":"美国基建股","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","BK7016":"应用软件","BK4588":"碎股","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","CAT.AU":"CATAPULT GROUP INTERNATIONAL","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","LU2106854487.HKD":"ALLIANZ THEMATICA \"AMG\" (HKD) INC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","BK4149":"建筑机械与重型卡车","LU0868494708.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) INC"},"translate_title":"在近期股价强劲势头后评估卡特彼勒(CAT)的估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"CAT.AU":1.5,"CAT":1.5},"content_text":"Caterpillar (CAT) has drawn fresh attention as its shares recently closed at $636.53, with annual revenue of $64.67b and net income of $9.27b. This has prompted investors to reassess how the stock is currently priced. See our latest analysis for Caterpillar. The recent 19.2% 90 day share price return and 73.9% one year total shareholder return suggest momentum has been building around Caterpillar, as investors reassess its risk and growth profile. If Caterpillar’s run has you thinking about other industrial names, it could be a good moment to scan aerospace and defense stocks for more opportunities in related sectors. With the share price near $636 and an intrinsic value estimate that sits lower, combined with a small discount to the average analyst target, you are left with a simple question: is Caterpillar undervalued, or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 8.3% Overvalued With Caterpillar’s fair value estimate sitting at about $588 against a last close of $636.53, the popular narrative sees the shares ahead of intrinsic value. Analysts are assuming Caterpillar's revenue will grow by 5.5% annually over the next 3 years. Analysts assume that profit margins will increase from 14.9% today to 18.2% in 3 years time. Read the complete narrative. Want to see what kind of earnings power those assumptions build toward? The narrative leans on richer margins and a future profit multiple that many investors usually associate with premium industrial names. Curious which earnings and valuation mix underpins that fair value and how sensitive it is to small changes in growth? Result: Fair Value of $588 (OVERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, that story can change quickly if new tariffs hit profitability harder than expected, or if weaker equipment demand leaves recent earnings assumptions looking too optimistic. Find out about the key risks to this Caterpillar narrative. Another Angle: Market Multiple Sends a Different Signal While the popular narrative sees Caterpillar about 8.3% ahead of its fair value, the current P/E of 32.1x tells a slightly different story. It sits above both the US Machinery industry at 26.4x and the peer average at 24.6x, yet below a fair ratio of 41.5x that the market could move toward. That gap suggests investors are already paying a premium compared to peers, but not as much as the fair ratio implies they might one day accept. The question for you is whether this points to valuation risk building in, or headroom that could close if sentiment stays strong. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown. NYSE:CAT P/E Ratio as at Jan 2026 Build Your Own Caterpillar Narrative If you see the numbers differently or prefer to stress test your own assumptions, you can create a fresh Caterpillar view in just a few minutes: Do it your way. A great starting point for your Caterpillar research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision. Ready for more investment ideas beyond Caterpillar? If Caterpillar has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to spot fresh ideas that fit your style and risk comfort.  Target potential mispricings by checking out these 884 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that could trade below what their cash flows imply. Tap into powerful themes by scanning these 25 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence trends. Strengthen your income focus by reviewing these 13 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that may offer higher yields than broad market averages.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: AI Stock Screener & AlertsOur new AI Stock Screener scans the market every day to uncover opportunities.• Dividend Powerhouses (3%+ Yield)• Undervalued Small Caps with Insider Buying• High growth Tech and AI CompaniesOr build your own from over 50 metrics.Explore Now for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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