By Doug Busch
Bitcoin is beginning to look less like a trade and more like an upward trend -- one that investors should get in on.
After a six-months-long stretch defined by skepticism and false starts for the crypto, there are multiple signals that a durable recovery is under way. Among them, price action has stabilized, volatility has moderated, and there still seem to be plenty of doubters. Bitcoin is currently trading around $96,000 and has added 15% from last November's low.
Bitcoin's recent advance is being reinforced by improving technical structure rather than momentum alone: The price has reclaimed key moving averages, trendlines are turning higher, and pullbacks are being met with steady demand from buyers. While short-term volatility remains, the technical picture increasingly suggests this move is building on a firmer foundation than past rallies.
For months, many analysts attributed cryptocurrencies' weakness to the relative strength of traditional havens such as gold and silver, implying that a retracement was inevitable once metal prices eased. Yet markets don't always require strict mean reversion. Bitcoin and other major tokens are showing signs of independent momentum -- suggesting that the recent gains are driven by more than simple rotational flows out of precious metals.
In other words, both asset classes can continue to climb. Or a potential precious metal drawdown can serve as fresh capital for the crypto space.
Bitcoin might consolidate as it approaches the very round $100,000 level, but the move continues to carry clear momentum. For all the hoopla surrounding Bitcoin, the iShares Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund has been essentially flat over the past year and trades 23% below its most recent 52-week highs. Yet the ETF has sprung to life in the past week, climbing 8%, and is on track to notch its first three-week winning streak in six months this Friday.
The fund's one-year daily chart is showing some nice technical action, and is taking little steps to improve its complexion. On Jan. 2, the ETF reclaimed its 21-day exponential moving average, and this week climbed above its 50-day simple moving average. It is pretty remarkable that the slope of the 200-day simple moving average never really turned lower -- despite the fund's 35% drop between early October and late November that began with a triple top at the round $70 number. Notice the weakness commenced with a bearish evening star completed on Oct. 7, falling 3%. Several dojis candles near the very round $50 number in December suggested a bottom was in place.
But on Wednesday, the Bitcoin fund broke above a bullish ascending triangle pivot of $54. Enter here and look for a quick move toward $65 in the near term, which would be a gain of 20% from current prices. Remain bullish above $52.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF was trading around $54.50 Thursday.
The Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF, like much of the crypto market, suffered a sharp pullback in the fourth quarter of last year. The fund now sits roughly 32% below its most recent 52-week high and has declined in 14 of the past 20 weeks. Performance has been notably inconsistent: Dating back to last August, the ETF failed to post consecutive weekly gains.
The technical backdrop, however, is beginning to improve for the world's second-largest crypto by market value. Since completing a bullish morning star pattern on Nov. 24, there has been little follow through to the downside -- a move that also marked a successful retest of a bull flag breakout from last July. Round number theory proved disruptive in the interim, with the $40 level acting as a clear ceiling after a 15% advance on August 22. The failure to clear that threshold -- followed by a bearish engulfing candle on Oct. 7 -- helped trigger the subsequent pullback.
More recently, the fund has reclaimed both its 21-day exponential and 50-day simple moving averages. On Wednesday, the Ethereum ETF surged 6% on above-average volume while breaking out of a symmetrical triangle. If the breakout holds, the technical setup points to a potential move toward $34 in the second quarter, while the broader bullish case remains intact above the $25 level.
The Grayscale Ethereum Staking ETF was trading around $27 Thursday.
The Solana ETF is down 29% over the past three months but has opened 2026 on a stronger note, gaining 15% so far. Volatility remains a defining feature of the fund, which is still trading roughly 46% below its most recent 52-week high, double the distance of the Bitcoin ETF from its respective high.
The fund is holding a potential double bottom near the $12 level, dating back to last April. It, notably, was the first of the major crypto funds to weaken: It began its descent in September several weeks ahead of the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. That early breakdown was marked by a bearish island reversal completed on Sept. 22 for an 8.3%, after a 7% gap higher on Sept. 12.
More recently, the focus has shifted to the upside. A decisive break above the $15 bullish inverse head and shoulders pivot would improve the technical outlook and could open the door to a move toward the $18 area later in the second quarter, roughly 23% above current levels. The broader bullish case remains intact above $13.75.
The Solana ETF was trading around $14.75 Thursday.
This is what real turnarounds look like before they become obvious.
Doug Busch is the senior technical analyst at Barron's Investor Circle . His technical view is added to stock picks, including those published exclusively for Investor Circle readers. A glossary of technical terms is updated regularly with new entries.
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 15, 2026 14:54 ET (19:54 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Comments