By Mackenzie Tatananni
Progress is rarely a straight line. In the world of emergent technology -- namely quantum computing -- that's an unfortunate truth.
Rigetti Computing became the latest company to suffer a setback last week, when it said it was delaying the release timeline for its Cepheus-1-108Q, its largest system to date.
General availability was slated for the end of 2025, but Rigetti now expects to deliver it by the end of the first quarter of 2026. The company says it needs additional time to test the system's performance and achieve a 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity.
Fidelity is measured between 0% and 100%. If the metric comes in at 100%, that means a quantum gate -- an essential component of quantum systems that enables the execution of algorithms -- operates exactly as intended.
It's a kick in the teeth for Rigetti, but quantum's most stringent supporters on Wall Street are unmoved. Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Troy Jensen doubled down on his bullish bet on Rigetti stock in a Jan. 9 note, reiterating an Overweight rating and $40 price target.
The company "has a clear understanding" of what it has to do to achieve target fidelity, Jensen noted. "While the delay is a minor disappointment, we do not believe it adversely affects Rigetti's multi-year technology roadmap," he said.
The analyst believes the company remains on track to deploy a system with more than 150 qubits and 99.7% median two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2026.
Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh is another bullish backer. Rakesh reiterated an Outperform rating on shares of Rigetti, D-Wave Quantum, and IonQ on Wednesday, saying he remains "positive" on the long-term prospects of quantum computing "though still in the early innings."
The analyst has price targets of $50, $46, and $90 for Rigetti, D-Wave, and IonQ, respectively.
As complications arose at Rigetti, peers moved forward. D-Wave announced the acquisition of hardware-and-software developer Quantum Circuits for $550 million on Jan. 7.
Barron's previously noted that the deal appeared to be a way for D-Wave to deepen its exposure to gate-based quantum computing, an architecture with broader applications than D-Wave's signature annealing quantum systems.
The acquisition could accelerate the development of D-Wave's gate-based systems by roughly three years, Rakesh said, noting that the deal "makes D-Wave the first major quantum player to have both annealing and gate superconducting quantum computing in its portfolio."
IonQ is also making strides. The company struck an agreement with the Korea Institute of Science and Technology Information at the end of December to deliver a 100-qubit IonQ Tempo system, though the timeline remains unclear.
Separately, IonQ deepened its ties to QuantumBasel in Switzerland, bringing the total value of the partnership to over $60 million from around $28 million. The terms include a contract extension through the end of 2029.
Investors are eager for signs of advancement on the commercial front, which supports hopes that the technology will move beyond a research setting and find practical applications in the real world.
Quantum peers traded mixed on Wednesday. Rigetti rose 0.3%, D-Wave gained 1%, and IonQ fell 1.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 1.2%.
Write to Mackenzie Tatananni at mackenzie.tatananni@barrons.com
This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 14, 2026 12:06 ET (17:06 GMT)
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