Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX:NEU) Valuation Check After DAYBUE Growth Outlook And Pipeline Progress

Simply Wall St.01-16

Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX:NEU) moved back into focus after partner Acadia Pharmaceuticals projected DAYBUE global net sales of about US$700 million by 2028, along with FDA approval of the new DAYBUE...

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See our latest analysis for Neuren Pharmaceuticals. Even after a recent 3.7% pullback in the 1 day share price return to A$19.71, Neuren’s 7 day share price return of 5.1% and 1 year total shareholder return of 60.5% suggest momentum has been supported by DAYBUE updates and progress with NNZ-2591. If news like DAYBUE’s expansion has you looking at the wider healthcare space, this could be a good moment to scan healthcare stocks for other potential ideas. After a 60.5% 1 year total return, a value score of 3 out of 6, and the stock trading about 27% below the A$24.96 analyst target, you have to ask: is there still a buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth? AdvertisementMost Popular Narrative: 19.6% Undervalued With Neuren Pharmaceuticals last closing at A$19.71 versus a narrative fair value of about A$24.51, the current price sits below those earnings based assumptions. The expectation of increased diagnosed population and patient uptake of DAYBUE in the U.S. indicates potential revenue growth with more patients getting access to the drug.  \nAcadia's investment in expanding its field force and direct-to-consumer campaigns is expected to increase DAYBUE's reach, further boosting Neuren's revenue through royalties. Read the complete narrative. Curious what kind of earnings path and margin profile would support that higher value, even with forecast revenue declines? The narrative leans heavily on profit expansion and a future earnings multiple that stays above the industry. The full breakdown shows how those moving parts fit together. Result: Fair Value of A$24.51 (UNDERVALUED) Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, this hinges on Acadia’s DAYBUE execution and future FDA decisions. Any setback on sales momentum or approvals could quickly challenge that 19.6% undervalued case. Find out about the key risks to this Neuren Pharmaceuticals narrative. Another Way To Look At Value Our DCF model paints a very different picture to the earnings based fair value. On this view, Neuren at A$19.71 is trading above an estimated fair value of A$5.25, which looks expensive rather than 19.6% undervalued. It raises a simple question for you: which story do you trust more? Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value. NEU Discounted Cash Flow as at Jan 2026Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Neuren Pharmaceuticals for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 868 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.  Build Your Own Neuren Pharmaceuticals Narrative If you are not on board with this view, or simply want to stress test the numbers yourself, you can build a personalised thesis in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way. A great starting point for your Neuren Pharmaceuticals research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision. Looking for more investment ideas? If Neuren has sharpened your interest, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to quickly spot other opportunities that fit your style and risk comfort.  Target income potential with these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that may suit investors who want more consistent cash returns from their holdings. Chase future facing trends by screening these 24 AI penny stocks that sit at the intersection of artificial intelligence and listed equities. Hunt for mispriced opportunities through these 868 undervalued stocks based on cash flows, where current market prices differ from underlying cash flow estimates.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n    and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n    financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n    Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n    Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.Discover if Neuren Pharmaceuticals might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.Access Free AnalysisHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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