The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0416 GMT - TSMC's increased capital expenditure poses a tailwind for Japanese wafer fab equipment manufacturers, Macquarie analyst Hiroshi Taguchi says in a note. TSMC's announced spending and Foundry 2.0 investment plans, which exceed market expectations, is a positive for manufacturers with high front-end process ratio, including Tokyo Electron, Screen Holdings and Kokusai, he says. The rise in TSMC's investment ratio in advanced packaging, testing and mask-making this year should benefit Japanese companies such as Advantest, Disco and Ibiden. However, Taguchi forecasts global smartphone shipments to decline amid surging memory prices, which would likely weigh on midrange and low-end smartphones companies the most. "For Japanese electronic component manufacturers, the risk of price reduction demands remains, but the steady production volume of high-end smartphones is a positive factor," he adds. (jason.chau@wsj.com)
0355 GMT - TSMC's advanced chips supply could remain tight for some time, Citi analysts say in a research note. Management reiterated during the earnings call that they are trying very hard to narrow the supply-demand gap. Despite the rising cost for more advanced nodes, Citi believes AI is positive for both its revenue and margin, reinforcing its ability to maintain industry-leading profitability through the cycle, the analysts say. For advanced packaging, the analysts think TSMC's capacity could reach 1.2 million-1.3 million wafers in 2026 and rise to 1.8 million-2 million in 2027. Citi maintains a buy call on TSMC and raises its target price to NT$2,600.00 from NT$2,450.00. Shares are last 2.7% higher at NT$1,735.00. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0343 GMT - Bank of China's overseas business is likely to bolster its overall performance this year, say DBS Group Research's Manyi Lu in a note. This segment's net-interest margin is likely to face fewer headwinds given fewer projected Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and Hong Kong's benchmark interest rate likely normalizing from recent extreme lows. Any interest rate cuts would support noninterest income growth overseas, Lu adds. She projects 1.9% earnings compound annual growth rate in 2024-2027 and lifts her 2025-2027 earnings estimates by 1%-3% on higher noninterest income expectations. DBS maintains its buy rating on Bank of China. It retains its HK$5.30 and CNY6.40 target prices on its Hong Kong and Shanghai shares, respectively. Its Hong Kong shares were last at HK$4.50 while China shares were last CNY5.41. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0330 GMT - Tencent is expected to deliver solid performance across its business segments in 4Q 2025, with total revenue estimated to have grown about 12% on year, Jefferies analysts Thomas Chong and Zoey Zong say in a note. They forecast revenue growth in online games segment on its best-in-class titles and expertise in nurturing evergreen games. Revenues of its marketing services and fintech and business services are also projected to have grown, supported by recent trends in consumer sentiment and AI adoption. Its social ecosystem gives it a competitive edge over peers amid macro headwinds and intensified competition, they add. Jefferies reaffirms Tencent as its top China internet pick for 2026 with a buy rating and a HK$795 target price. Shares last traded at HK$617.50.(jason.chau@wsj.com)
0329 GMT - S-Oil could post better-than-expected 4Q earnings on solid refining margins, Hyundai Motor Securities analyst Kang Dong-jin writes in a note. The Saudi Aramco-controlled refiner based in South Korea could also gain from the recently improving paraxylene margins, Kang says. He raises his 4Q operating profit forecast for S-Oil by 42% to KRW431.40 billion. The analyst says the business environment could become more favorable for S-Oil if rival Chinese refiners struggle to import and process lower-priced heavy sour crude from Venezuela following the U.S. capture of former Venezuelan President Maduro. The Venezuelan crude could be diverted to the U.S. market, instead of China, he adds. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)
0319 GMT - NIO is better positioned to weather headwinds in China's auto industry, says Macquarie analyst Eugene Hsiao in a note. The ES8 model has sold better than expected with the current backlog likely to support strong volume growth into 2Q, he adds. The sales volume of Firefly was surprisingly high with 2025 sales approaching 40,000 units. There will be a potential upside if the European Union launch goes smoothly with possible removal of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Rising lithium costs are unlikely to drag NIO's margins much since a high share of customers opt for a battery swapping option in which battery costs are borne by a third party. Macquarie maintains its outperform rating for the stock and raises its target price to HK$47 from HK$41. Shares last at HK$36.60. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0315 GMT - XPeng needs to navigate a tricky 2026 as it continues to expand its lineup with new models, Macquarie analyst Eugene Hsiao writes in a note. The electric-vehicle company's sales volume is at risk from recent changes in China's policy, as buyers of its best-selling Mona M03 will receive a lower vehicle-replacement subsidy, he adds. XPeng's focus on full EVs could weigh on margins should rising lithium costs pass through to battery prices. Macquarie cuts its 2026 gross margin forecast for XPeng by 260 bps. Nonetheless, XPeng has the highest chance of a rerating among Chinese EV makers, Hsiao says, citing its non-EV tech pursuits. The brokerage maintains its outperform rating for the stock but cuts the target price to HK$100.00 from HK$122.00. Shares last at HK$81.95. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0305 GMT - Geely Automobile looks relatively defensive amid a softening domestic auto market, says Macquarie analyst Eugene Hsiao in a note. The company's 4Q vehicle margin could reach 18% on a better premium mix, with strong sales of new high-end EV models, he adds. Declines in 1Q volume may be less severe than peers due to its higher traditional engine car exposure, new model launches and continued demand from successful 4Q releases, he says. The margin headwinds from rising battery and memory costs may be less impactful since Geely has a strong overseas exposure and a diverse product mix. Macquarie maintains an outperform rating for the stock and lowers its target price to HK$23.00 from HK$26.00. Shares last trade at HK$17.36.(jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0302 GMT - City Developments' stock could be a near-term tactical play on the property developer's potential special dividend and rising valuation, says DBS Group Research's Tabitha Foo in a note. The stock has risen 12% year to date, she says. CDL still offers compelling value despite the share rally as it trades at an attractive 0.49X price to revalued net asset value ratio and at a discount to peer UOL, she adds. Market concerns over its gearing--relatively stable at 0.70X--could be overstated. She expects CDL to benefit from "meaningful interest rate relief" thanks to a favorable refinancing cycle. DBS maintains its buy rating and S$11.80 target price on CDL, which rises 2.1% to S$9.14. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0301 GMT - Macquarie reckons investors should wait to buy Li Auto despite its recent share price decline. The company's management needs a substantial strategic change to tell a turnaround story to investors, says analyst Eugene Hsiao in a note. Such changes could include a credible move into new product categories or cash shareholder return, he adds. In the absence of such a change, Macquarie maintains its underperform rating on the stock. Near-term catalysts for Li Auto's volume growth also appear limited given severe competition in the premium SUV market and lower EV registration tax incentive, he says. The brokerage cuts its target price to HK$59.00 from HK$66.00. Shares last at HK$64.15. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0254 GMT - Macquarie downgrades Australian uranium companies Paladin Energy and Boss Energy after recent share-price gains. The bank shifts its rating on Paladin to neutral from outperform, saying it is "time for a pause." The stock is up sharply since a September equity raise, closing the gap on the bank's valuation estimate, Macquarie says. It keeps a A$11.10 target on the stock. Paladin rises 5.4% to A$11.25. For Boss, it is "back to the drawing board" after an underwhelming update on its Honeymoon mine, says Macquarie. While Boss will try to accelerate satellite deposits and lower costs, "this needs to be proven," the bank says. It downgrades Boss to underperform from neutral. Macquarie reiterates a A$1.25 target on the stock. Boss is up 1.0% at A$1.59. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0246 GMT - BYD faces a tougher growth backdrop given its already sizeable presence in China's EV market, says Macquarie analyst Eugene Hsiao in a note. Upcoming new model launches with meaningful technology upgrades could support BYD's competitiveness after market-share losses last year, he adds. That said, the upgrades could require higher bill-of-material costs that could pressure margins in an already challenging year for EV input costs, he says. The overseas growth momentum and profitability could still support a re-rating if it beats market expectations again this year, he adds. Macquarie maintains an outperform rating for the stock and cuts its target price to HK$115.00 from HK$126.00. Shares last at HK$100.50. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 15, 2026 23:16 ET (04:16 GMT)
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